Quebec votes: the build-out stays, the fast track is in doubt

Every party likely to govern Quebec after October 5 backs more hydro power and mining, and the new lines carrying Hydro-Québec power south already run: New England Clean Energy Connect (NECEC) to New England since January 2026, Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) to New York City since May.¹² The vote won't decide whether Quebec's part of the resource build-out goes ahead, but who steers it, and how fast.

Question	Where it stands	What the vote changes
Hydro, mining, lines south	All likely winners back them	Little
Aluminum, the biggest resource sale to the US	50% US tariff	Nothing: up to Washington and Ottawa
Quebec's fast-track bill	Lapsed	Only the CAQ, projected at zero seats, would revive it
Churchill Falls	Signed, mostly not binding	A PQ government would review it
Ottawa's fast-track laws	No party position	A PQ government would likely push back

The Parti Québécois is heading for a win, probably with a majority. On September 28, the Qc125 poll aggregator projected it at 67 of 127 seats (64 make a majority), with a 56% chance of a majority, up from 33% a day earlier after three new polls.³

Party	Vote	Seats (range)
Parti Québécois (PQ)	29.8%	67 (54–77)
Liberals (PLQ)	22.6%	37 (31–42)
Conservatives (PCQ)	17.4%	15 (10–23)
Québec solidaire (QS)	11.2%	8 (3–12)
Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), outgoing government	18.3%	0 (0–7)

Seats follow where the votes are: the Conservatives' vote is concentrated in and around Quebec City and in Chaudière-Appalaches, including the Beauce, where Qc125 places all 11 seats it rates safe or likely for them, while the CAQ's slightly larger vote is spread thin and leads in no riding.³

What doesn't change

Hydro and mining go ahead under any likely winner. We found no party that proposes to slow Hydro-Québec's expansion. The Liberals promise to "fully take on" the development of forests and mines, with "clear, stable and predictable rules";⁴ the PQ, 10% of mining royalties for host regions and faster permits.⁵ (Quotes from French sources are our translations.)

Event · 2026-09-03 · statement · CA-QCParti Québécois promises faster mining permits and 10% of mining royalties for host regions

Parti Québécois promises faster mining permits and 10% of mining royalties for host regions

In a press release issued in Val-d'Or on 3 September 2026, during the Quebec election campaign, the Parti Québécois said a PQ government would add a "mining communities" component to Quebec's natural-resource royalty revenue-sharing program, giving regions that host mining 10% of the mining royalties paid to the Quebec treasury. The party estimated this at $48 million in new money for the regions, including $27 million a year for Abitibi-Témiscamingue, $6 million for Nord-du-Québec and $14 million for the Côte-Nord. Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon also promised to simplify permitting: "Nous ferons le ménage dans cette désorganisation pour accélérer l'obtention de permis et d'autorisation pour mettre en branle plus rapidement des projets de prospection et d'exploitation de nos minéraux" ("We will clean up this disorganization to speed up permits and authorizations so exploration and mining projects can start sooner"). The release did not say how or by when permitting would change. The party also promised a new forestry regime before the end of 2027 and a cabinet seat for Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

Documented by

• Parti Québécois, “Le Parti Québécois au service de l'Abitibi-Témiscamingue et des régions”, 2026-09-03.

But Quebec sells the US far more metal than power. The PQ's Livre bleu says the New York line gives Quebec "an undeniable strategic position", yet its first example of US trade that will continue is raw aluminum, almost C$9 billion a year, which it says Americans have every interest in buying. Electricity is C$1.3 billion of the C$87.3 billion it says the US buys from Quebec, behind aircraft, engines and trucks.⁶

In 2025 Quebec sent the US about C$19 billion of metals, minerals and ores (C$29 billion to all buyers), more than 30 times its electricity sales there: about C$0.6 billion in 2025, a dry year (the Livre bleu's C$1.3 billion matches 2023's).⁷

Aluminum is the largest part, almost half: Quebec makes about 90% of Canada's, with hydro power,⁸ and sent 96% of its raw aluminum exports to the US in 2024. Iron ore, next in size, goes almost all overseas (under 5% to the US in 2025).⁹ Much of Quebec's hydro power reaches the US as metal.

Rain matters more than the vote. In 2025, a third dry year in a row, Hydro-Québec bought 15.2 TWh outside Quebec and sold 11.8 TWh there, the reverse of 2024.¹⁰

What changes: the fast track

Only one party promises to revive Quebec's fast-track bill, and it is projected to win no seats. Bill 5 (Bill 5 (QC): Act to speed up authorizations for priority projects of national scope) would have given designated "priority projects of national scope" one authorization instead of many permits, and let the government set aside parts of other laws.¹¹ Tabled in December 2025, it was adopted in principle in February without a recorded vote, then stalled and lapsed.

Event · 2026-08-27 · action · CA-QCQuebec Bill 5 lapses when the National Assembly is dissolved for the election, after stalling in committee in June

Quebec Bill 5 lapses when the National Assembly is dissolved for the election, after stalling in committee in June

Clause-by-clause study in the Commission des finances publiques last sat on 2026-06-09 and adjourned while debating clause 32. On 2026-06-10 the Centre québécois du droit de l'environnement welcomed the bill's 'mort au feuilleton' (death on the order paper). On 2026-06-11 a Liberal MNA told the Assembly that Bill 5 (known as 'Q-5') had stopped advancing and was 'mort au feuilleton', and that its REM provisions had been moved into Bill 22. The Assembly adjourned sine die on 2026-06-12 without passing it. Formally the bill stayed on the order paper until the Assembly was dissolved on 2026-08-27 for the 2026-10-05 election, which ended it. (It had already survived the prorogation of 2026-04-08 and was reinstated at the same stage on 2026-05-06.) On 2026-09-09 the CAQ pledged, if re-elected, to table a new bill 'inspired by Q5'.

Documented by

• Assemblée nationale du Québec, “Commission des finances publiques, Journal des débats, 9 juin 2026 (Vol. 49 N° 12): étude détaillée du projet de loi n° 5”, 2026-06-09.
• Assemblée nationale du Québec, “Assemblée nationale, Journal des débats, 11 juin 2026 (Vol. 49 N° 16)”, 2026-06-11.
• Assemblée nationale du Québec, “Assemblée nationale: dissolution de l'Assemblée nationale (27 août 2026)”, 2026-08-27.

In February the Liberals backed the principle with "serious amendments". For the PQ it was "not a blank cheque": articles 22 and 23, setting other laws aside, were "far too broad", a risk "for our democracy", and projects on the land mean thinking of First Nations and Inuit first. Québec solidaire voted against.¹²

The campaign promises are thinner. The CAQ pledges a bill modelled on Bill 5, inside a package about schools and hospitals.¹³ The PQ's pledge to "clean up" the "disorganization" slowing mining permits names no bill, deadline or single window.⁵ The Liberals' mandatory response deadlines "to speed up economic projects" are a general pledge, not aimed at resources.⁴

Our model puts about 6% on a Bill 5-style law tabled by October 2027 (range 2% to 14%), and about 12% (6% to 20%) on any law setting binding, shorter permit deadlines. Of the eight governments elected in Canada since late 2024, the three that tabled such a law in their first year had all promised faster approvals; the PQ promised faster mining permits but no such regime,⁵ and it objects to setting other laws aside.

Pre-registered prediction P9 · open · registered 2026-09-27Quebec fast-track test, strict and loose, by 2027-10-05

Quebec fast-track test, strict and loose, by 2027-10-05

Window: 2026-10-05 to 2027-10-05. What counts: The question: by 5 October 2027, does the Quebec government elected on 5 October 2026 table or pass a fast-track law? We score a strict and a loose version. What counts as a hit: strict version: a law that creates an exception regime or a single-approval regime for designated projects, as Quebec's Bill 5 did. Loose version: any law that sets binding, shorter permit deadlines for resource or energy projects. A …

A second test watches for powers the winner left out of its platform.

Pre-registered prediction P12 · open · registered 2026-09-27October platforms: "soft before, hard after"

October platforms: "soft before, hard after"

Window: 2026-10-05 to 2027-01-17. What counts: The question: do governments leave controversial fast-track powers out of their election platforms, then bring them in soon after winning? We call this "soft before the vote, hard after". What counts as a hit: within about 85 days of the Quebec vote (October 5) or the BC vote (October 24), the new government tables a bill that fast-tracks projects or lets it set other laws aside, and those powers were missing from …

Churchill Falls: signed, not yet binding

The deal was signed on August 17, but most of it doesn't bind anyone yet. The cooperation agreement between Hydro-Québec and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro (Definitive Cooperation and Implementation Agreement (Churchill Falls / Gull Island) (DCIA 2026-08-17)) sets terms for binding agreements due by December 31, 2026, with a hard deadline of March 31, 2027 that both sides can extend.¹⁴ It covers upgrades, a new plant at Gull Island and supply to Quebec until 2077. Ottawa and Newfoundland and Labrador's legislature have since backed it:

Event · 2026-08-17 · document · CAOttawa announces up to $10 billion in federal financing and support for the Churchill Falls and Gull Island hydro package

Ottawa announces up to $10 billion in federal financing and support for the Churchill Falls and Gull Island hydro package

On 17 August 2026, Prime Minister Carney, Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette and Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Tony Wakeham announced an agreement to upgrade and expand the Churchill Falls generating station and develop the Gull Island project and related transmission. The Prime Minister's Office said the federal government would provide $10 billion in federal financing, and a Natural Resources Canada backgrounder described a package including "up to $10 billion in federal financial support and investments," with the federal government guaranteeing the financing for Gull Island. The PMO said the projects, valued at nearly $70 billion, would generate 14,000 megawatts and support 23,000 jobs in the construction phase. The Newfoundland and Labrador government put federal support for the province at $3.5 billion (2026 net present value), including up to a 40% federal equity stake in a Labrador wind project, $1 billion toward a Labrador West transmission line, a federal loan guarantee for Gull Island, and referral of the projects to the Major Projects Office once binding agreements are concluded. Hydro-Québec said it would take advantage of Government of Canada financing totalling $6.5 billion. The province said it would now work with Quebec, Canada and the two utilities to implement final binding agreements.

Documented by

• Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, “Newfoundland and Labrador Reaches Historic Deal with Government of Quebec and Government of Canada to Develop Churchill Falls and Gull Island”, 2026-08-17.
• Prime Minister's Office, “Prime Minister Carney announces the largest clean energy investment in North American history”, 2026-08-17.
• Hydro-Québec, “Power generation in Labrador: Hydro-Québec secures Québec's energy future at a competitive cost”, 2026-08-17.

Event · 2026-09-17 · action · CA-NLNL House of Assembly passes a resolution to proceed with the Churchill Falls deal, 21–18

NL House of Assembly passes a resolution to proceed with the Churchill Falls deal, 21–18

The vote came at the end of a four-day special sitting. For: all 20 Progressive Conservative members and independent Eddie Joyce. Against: 15 Liberals, two New Democrats and Keith Russell, who had just left the PC caucus. Premier Wakeham said the goal is final terms by the end of the year, though the work may run into next year, and that the government would wait for the outcome of the Quebec election.

Documented by

• CBC, “Why did N.L. Hydro board support both the new and old Churchill MOUs? House hears about changes”, 2026-09-16.
• CBC News, “House of Assembly votes in favour of moving forward with Churchill River power agreement”, 2026-09-17.

It is built for Quebec's own demand, not for US buyers. Its new lines run from Labrador into Quebec, none to the US; Newfoundland and Labrador gets access to up to 240 MW on the New York line and 200 MW on the New England line.¹⁵

Hydro-Québec puts Labrador power at about 6¢/kWh over 50 years;¹⁶ we get about 8.9¢ for the existing plant alone. Hydro-Québec's figure covers the whole package, 6,915 MW of firm power including Gull Island and the Churchill Falls upgrades, and its release doesn't say how it was calculated; ours covers the existing plant only, in current dollars. We discounted the deal's yearly payments and energy (Annex D, p. 30) at its own rate, 5.822%, and divided one by the other: 4.4¢ a kWh to 2041, 16.8¢ after.¹⁴ Our data pages give the year-by-year payments, energy and price, with downloads.

Chart · ¢/kWh

How to read this: Time runs left to right; each line is one series. Hover a point or bar for its exact period and value.

Source

• Hydro-Québec, “Definitive Cooperation and Implementation Agreement (DCIA), Churchill Falls / Gull Island, 2026-08-17”, 2026-08-17.

A PQ government would review it, not tear it up, its leader said on September 7: a campaign statement, not a decision.¹⁷

Event · 2026-09-07 · statement · CA-QCSt-Pierre Plamondon: a PQ government would not tear up the Churchill Falls deal if it is good, but would check every detail

St-Pierre Plamondon: a PQ government would not tear up the Churchill Falls deal if it is good, but would check every detail

Speaking in Rivière-du-Loup, the PQ leader said tearing up the agreement was 'not my intention' and that 'as long as the agreement is good, we have no interest in tearing it up for the sake of it', but that a PQ government would check every detail to make sure Quebec's interest was served (quotes translated from French). He had earlier said Premier Fréchette lacked the 'legitimacy' to sign the deal so close to an election, and in 2024 he called Quebec's efforts to settle the dispute 'humiliating'. Fréchette has said only a re-elected CAQ government can see the final agreement through.

Documented by

• Noovo, “Churchill Falls: St-Pierre Plamondon n'a pas l'intention de déchirer l'entente”, 2026-09-07.
• L'actualité, “Churchill Falls: St-Pierre Plamondon n'a pas l'intention de déchirer l'entente”, 2026-09-07. paywalled

Innu consent is the bigger risk. The Innu of Uashat mak Mani-utenam and Matimekush-Lac John say their consent is "mandatory", and are suing Hydro-Québec in Quebec's courts.¹⁸ The deal is also meant to power Ottawa's new Labrador Trough corridor for iron ore and critical minerals, built "to bring Canadian resources to global markets".¹⁹ In our judgment, delay is likelier than collapse.

Pre-registered prediction P7 · open · registered 2026-09-27Churchill Falls definitive agreements by 2027-03-31

Churchill Falls definitive agreements by 2027-03-31

Window: 2026-09-27 to 2027-03-31. What counts: The question: are the final (definitive) Churchill Falls agreements signed before the framework agreement expires on 31 March 2027? And does the new Quebec government (probably the Parti Quebecois) try to reopen the deal's Material Terms? What counts as signed: the parties have executed the full, definitive agreements by 31 March 2027. If the framework is extended without the agreements being signed, it counts as …

Who decides

On Ottawa's fast-track laws, the parties are silent. We found no party position on the federal One Canadian Economy Act (incl. Building Canada Act) (C-5), which lets cabinet fast-track projects it lists as in the national interest, or its follow-up, the Building Canada Strong Act (C-39). The Livre bleu says the Constitution gives Ottawa "plenty of loopholes" to override provincial control of resources,⁶ so a PQ government would likely resist a federal designation in Quebec, though it hasn't said so.

The real split is over oil and gas, a small part of Quebec's role. The Conservatives would "liberalize" exploration and production;²⁰ Québec solidaire would ban new pipelines;²¹ the Liberals would keep today's ban on exploration and production.⁴ In February, the CAQ and the Liberals defeated, 80–14, a motion against the Marinvest gas pipeline and LNG plant that the PQ and QS supported.²²

The referendum comes later

The PQ promises a referendum on independence in its first mandate, but not before January 20, 2029, when President Trump's term ends.²³ The National Assembly must approve the question first.²⁴

Washington came up twice late in the campaign. Premier Christine Fréchette confirmed a US approach last spring seeking a Quebec-only trade deal, which she said she turned down.²⁵ Le Journal de Montréal reported that Ottawa had warned Quebec of possible US interference to help elect an independentist government; the claim is unproven, and the PQ leader denied any contact with US officials.

Event · 2026 · action · CA-QCFréchette confirms a US approach last spring seeking a Quebec-only deal on USMCA-linked sectors, which she says she turned down

Fréchette confirms a US approach last spring seeking a Quebec-only deal on USMCA-linked sectors, which she says she turned down

⚠ Caution: anonymous sources The US embassy and aluminum details come from two unnamed Quebec government sources cited by Québecor media. The premier confirmed only that there was a US approach last spring seeking a Quebec deal and that she refused it. Reported by an outlet citing unnamed sources.

Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette confirmed on 25 September 2026 that "there was an approach last spring" seeking a deal with Quebec on sectors linked to CUSMA (USMCA), and said she "closed the door right away" because Quebec cannot sign its own agreement with the United States and a global agreement and a united front are needed, Radio-Canada and Le Droit reported (quotes translated from French). She described it as an approach by the Americans but did not say which US office or official made it. Québecor media had reported earlier that day, citing two senior Quebec government sources, that the US embassy in Ottawa had contacted her government in recent months to negotiate lower tariffs directly with Quebec, notably on aluminum; Noovo, relaying those reports, said there had been no concrete negotiation. The embassy and aluminum details rest on those anonymous sources. No exact date for the approach was given.

Documented by

• Radio-Canada, “Les partis ébranlés par des allégations d’ingérence américaine dans la campagne”, 2026-09-25.
• Radio-Canada, “Élections au Québec : les faits saillants du jour 30”, 2026-09-25.
• Noovo Info, “Guerre commerciale: Fréchette se plaint à Carney d’allégations d’ingérence américaine dans les élections québécoises”, 2026-09-25.

Event · 2026-09-25 · statement · CA-QCJournal de Montréal reports Ottawa warned Quebec of possible US interference to help an independentist government

Journal de Montréal reports Ottawa warned Quebec of possible US interference to help an independentist government

⚠ Caution: unproven allegation Reported by Le Journal de Montréal; Premier Fréchette said the claims had not been confirmed, and PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon denied any attempt to meet US officials; on 3 October he said his party had told the US consulate of a planned US trip that did not take place. A claim someone made that nobody has confirmed.

Le Journal de Montréal reported that Ottawa had warned the Quebec government of possible US interference to help elect an independentist government. The claim is unproven: Premier Fréchette later said, in Radio-Canada's account, that nothing led her government to believe "ces allégations, ces hypothèses" (these allegations, these hypotheses) were true, and PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon denied any attempt to meet US officials; on 3 October he said his party had told the US consulate of a planned US trip that did not take place.

Documented by

• CBC News (The Canadian Press), “Federal intelligence agency contacted as U.S. interference claims swirl in Quebec election”, 2026-09-25.
• Radio-Canada, “La CAQ, l'ingérence et les services secrets, une chronologie intrigante”, 2026-09-27.
• Noovo Info (La Presse Canadienne), “Demande de rencontre de PSPP: le Département d'État refuse de confirmer”, 2026-10-03.

What it means for our forecast

Of the six resources in our volume model (oil, gas, power, uranium, potash, metals), Quebec counts in two, and for now neither adds much.

Its power adds about nothing, like for like. The new lines to New England and New York only make up for sales Hydro-Québec is losing elsewhere: in a year of normal rain and snow, Canada's energy regulator puts the country's electricity exports at about 59 terawatt-hours in 2024 and about 57 in 2034.²⁶ Our model doesn't forecast rain, so it compares a normal year with a normal year.

One caveat: 2024 was in fact a dry year, with exports of only about 36 terawatt-hours, against 60 to 73 a year from 2015 to 2022.²⁷ Growth measured from there would mostly be water coming back, not building, so the model doesn't count it; but if 2034 is a normal year, the check in 2034 will make electricity look about US$2 billion a year better, for reasons that have nothing to do with building. The fast track, Churchill Falls and the rain decide how much power Quebec has for its own homes, smelters and mines.

Its metals matter more, and aluminum was hit rather than spared. In 2025, after the US put 25% and then 50% on aluminum,²⁸ Quebec's shipments south fell by a quarter.⁹

Event · 2025-06-04 · action · USUS Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum double from 25% to 50% on 4 June 2025 for all countries except the UK

US Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum double from 25% to 50% on 4 June 2025 for all countries except the UK

President Trump's Proclamation 10947, signed on 3 June 2025, raised the Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and their derivative products from 25% to 50% from 12:01 a.m. on 4 June 2025. Imports from the United Kingdom stayed at 25% under the US-UK trade deal of May 2025, with the rate open to adjustment from 9 July. Canadian steel and aluminum were subject to the full 50%.

Documented by

• Federal Register (Executive Office of the President), “Proclamation 10947: Adjusting Imports of Aluminum and Steel Into the United States”, 2025-06-03.
• Blakes (Blake, Cassels & Graydon), “U.S.–Canada Tariffs: Timeline of Key Dates and Documents”, 2026-09-04.

Output didn't fall; Rio Tinto and Alcoa sent metal to other buyers, mostly in Europe.²⁹³⁰ Iron ore already went overseas, and the Labrador Trough corridor is built for world markets. New graphite and lithium mines add a little, by value, to US battery supply.³¹³²

So the trade war pulls Quebec's part of the US side of "both sides win" down, and a better aluminum deal should undo most of that. With a full exemption, our model sends most of Quebec's aluminum back to US buyers, as after the US lifted its tariff for Canada in 2019,³³³⁴ but not all: a planned Oklahoma smelter, and a US rule letting its builders import metal at half the tariff, will keep some out.³⁵³⁶

How much comes back depends on the deal. The model's central case weighs three settlements (a full exemption, 25%, or the 50% lasting). Counted that way across all of Canada's metals, its odds that clearly more resource value reaches the US (more than about US$4 billion a year above 2024) dip slightly:

Aluminum outcome	Odds that clearly more resource value reaches the US
Full exemption	about 89%
Central case (three settlements weighed)	about 85% (about 87% without metals)
50% lasts into the 2030s	about 76%

These odds are for the US side only. Whether Canada comes out ahead too depends mostly on how long the tariffs last, aluminum's included: by 2034 it does unless most of today's tariffs are still in place, but the war years leave it behind over the decade (see What Canada nets). Either way, Canada showed it can sell elsewhere. A PQ win changes neither.

What would matter: a US–Canada aluminum deal; a Quebec government challenging a federal designation in court, which could test Ottawa's fast track for every province; Churchill Falls falling apart, tightening Quebec's own supply and stalling power for the Labrador Trough mines; or another dry year. If any of these happen, we will update the odds and say why.