Pre-registered prediction P12Open
October platforms: "soft before, hard after"
This test belongs to the thought experiment about US intent: it states in advance what each reading expects, so the result can count for or against any of them, including the foresight reading.
- Registered
- Window
- 5 October 2026 to 17 January 2027
Vote to day ~85: Quebec 2026-10-05 to ~2026-12-29; BC 2026-10-24 to ~2027-01-17 - Status
- Open: The window has not closed; nothing has settled it yet.
Articles that cite this record
What counts
The question: do governments leave controversial fast-track powers out of their election platforms, then bring them in soon after winning? We call this "soft before the vote, hard after".
What counts as a hit: within about 85 days of the Quebec vote (October 5) or the BC vote (October 24), the new government tables a bill that fast-tracks projects or lets it set other laws aside, and those powers were missing from its platform or only vaguely described there.
How we check: we search each winner's platform for a list of terms fixed before the BC platforms came out, such as "pre-approved", "automatic approval" and "designated projects". A second reader, working separately with the same rules, reviews every resource and permitting bill of the new government's first year, and any of the province's projects sent to Ottawa's Major Projects Office.
A limit: we had already read the Quebec platforms when we set these rules, so the Quebec half is a weaker test than the BC half.
What each reading expects
| Reading | Expects | If seen |
|---|---|---|
| C1 Ottawa opportunistic Ottawa | Fast-track/override bill within ~85 days whose powers were absent or vague in the platform (low weight) | Raises its odds |
| I0b Plain self-interest; Canada's response not considered Tested hypothesis (intent) | No different prediction from the other readings on this test. | No change |
| I2 Foreseen and wanted (this level or higher) Tested hypothesis (intent) | No different prediction from the other readings on this test. | No change |
| R-weaken Weaken-Canada rivals (annexation or fragmentation) Rival reading | No different prediction from the other readings on this test. | No change |
Observations
- British Columbia general election, polling day (scheduled)
No 2026 BC platform documents released as of 09-27; the 2024 platforms are the latest texts. The keyword frame must be fixed before they land.