ClaimMechanism
The Churchill Falls and Gull Island deal complicates the thesis. It began before the tariffs (negotiating mandates in 2023-24, a memorandum of understanding on December 12, 2024). In the tariff era it got bigger and politically safer (C$10 billion in federal financing, a referendum dropped) but not faster: every milestone slipped. The August 2026 agreement sets terms for binding contracts due by the end of 2026, and it adds no new power line to the US.
Articles that cite this record
The evidence it rests on
Supports (6)
- Hydro-Québec and NL Hydro sign a largely non-binding memorandum of understanding on Churchill Falls and Gull Island
Pre-tariff MOU.
Documented by: Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro / Hydro-Québec, “Memorandum of Understanding for a New Long-Term Energy Purchase and Development Initiative between Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and Hydro-Québec (12 December 2024)” (external site), . archived copy and 2 more
- Newfoundland and Labrador approves a mandate to negotiate a new Churchill Falls agreement with Hydro-Québec
Pre-tariff mandate.
Documented by: Churchill River Independent Review Committee, “Creating Long-Term Value from the Churchill River for the People of Newfoundland and Labrador (Report by the Churchill River Independent Review Committee)” (external site), .
- Churchill Falls / Gull Island Definitive Cooperation and Implementation Agreement (DCIA) signed; mostly non-binding
Framework still non-binding.
Documented by: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, “Newfoundland and Labrador Reaches Historic Deal with Government of Quebec and Government of Canada to Develop Churchill Falls and Gull Island” (external site), . and 9 more
- First Innu Nation ratification vote on the Hydro-Québec settlement fails to reach the 50% turnout required
The first Innu ratification vote on the Hydro-Québec settlement failed on turnout in October 2025: one more milestone that slipped.
Documented by: CBC News, “Hydro-Québec settlement with Labrador Innu 'dead' after failing to hit 50% voter turnout: negotiator” (external site), . and 2 more
- Innu Nation postpones until further notice its second vote on the revised Hydro-Québec settlement
The Innu Nation's second vote on the revised settlement, set for late May 2026, was postponed until further notice: the settlement stays open.
Documented by: VOCM, “Ratification Vote Set for Renegotiated Agreement Between Innu and Hydro Quebec” (external site), . and 1 more
- Innu Nation Grand Chief signs the 2024 Churchill Falls MOU and calls it historic
The Innu Nation's Grand Chief signed the Churchill Falls memorandum of understanding on December 12, 2024: the deal began before the tariffs.
Documented by: CBC News, “Innu Nation grand chief gives green light for new Churchill Falls deal” (external site), .
Complicates (2)
- Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Wakeham drops his promised referendum on a Churchill Falls deal, citing federal involvement and US tariffs
The one act tying the deal to the tariffs.
Documented by: PC Party of Newfoundland and Labrador, “PC Party of Newfoundland and Labrador 2025 platform, 'For All of Us'” (external site), . and 3 more
- Ottawa announces up to $10 billion in federal financing and support for the Churchill Falls and Gull Island hydro package
Federal money enlarged the package in the tariff era.
Documented by: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, “Newfoundland and Labrador Reaches Historic Deal with Government of Quebec and Government of Canada to Develop Churchill Falls and Gull Island” (external site), . and 3 more
Context (1)
- NL House of Assembly passes a resolution to proceed with the Churchill Falls deal, 21–18
Narrow House resolution, not a binding contract.
Documented by: CBC, “Why did N.L. Hydro board support both the new and old Churchill MOUs? House hears about changes” (external site), . and 1 more
Claims are weighed by the evidence under them, actions first. Method.