Who pays

Our forecast says that, on the current course, both countries come out ahead: the US gets more Canadian energy and metal, Canada a bigger resource base and more buyers. It promised a later piece on who pays for that. This is it. (We have since corrected the odds we gave that forecast: they counted only the US side. What Canada nets counts Canada's.)

A country coming out ahead is not everyone in it coming out ahead. The costs land on particular people on both sides of the border, and for most of them tariffs are one cause among several. The table sums it up; the sections below take each row in turn.

Who	What they pay	What else is at work
Steelworkers	Algoma: 1,005 layoff notices; Stelco: up to 500 jobs	A planned switch to electric furnaces; weak demand, imports
Forestry towns	BC wood-products jobs down 10% in two years	Timber supply shrinking since before 2025; pulp prices
Auto-parts workers	Payroll jobs down 5.6% in 2025	End of US EV credits; Brampton idle since 2023
Consumers	About 0.3% on prices from the 2025 counter-tariffs	Most removed in 2025; the 2026 round not yet measured
Exporters	Bottled alcohol shut out of the US; BRP expects profit per share down 50-60%	The US premium covers aluminum smelters, not processors
Taxpayers	Support programs, lower revenue, tax breaks; a half share of a second pipeline	Loans and stakes cost only if they go bad
First Nations	Pressure on consultation; loan-financed stakes in the projects	Some projects began before 2025
Americans	Higher prices on tariffed goods; lost alcohol sales; fewer Canadian visitors	Shelf bans, not tariffs, cut alcohol sales; the exchange rate

Workers

Manufacturing has won back part of its losses, not all. The sector lost 61,000 jobs from January 2025 to June 2026, "coinciding with a period of tariff-related uncertainty", then regained 22,000 in August. That leaves it "little changed" on a year ago, but still roughly 39,000 below January 2025, leaving July aside.¹² Statistics Canada found that losses in trade-dependent industries began in 2024, before the tariffs, and came mostly from slower hiring, not more layoffs.³

The losses are concentrated. Auto-parts payroll jobs fell 5.6% in 2025 while vehicle assembly held steady. In British Columbia, wood-products jobs were 10% lower in July 2026 than two years earlier.⁴

Chart · jobs

How to read this: One bar per period, starting at zero, so heights compare directly. Series are grouped side by side within each period, in legend order. Hover a point or bar for its exact period and value.

Source

• Statistics Canada, “Table 14-10-0201-01: Employment by industry, monthly, unadjusted for seasonality (SEPH), extract to July 2026”, 2026-09-24.

Steel took the most direct hit. Algoma Steel paid C$225.0 million in direct tariff costs in 2025 and has turned away from the US: 51% of its shipments went there in 2025 (45% in the last quarter), 23% in the second quarter of 2026.⁵⁶⁷

Chart · % of shipments

How to read this: One bar per period, starting at zero, so heights compare directly. Hover a point or bar for its exact period and value.

Source

• Algoma Steel / SEC, “Algoma Steel Group Inc. Reports Financial Results for the Three Months Ended June 30, 2026 (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 6-K)”, 2026-07-29.

Event · 2025-12-01 · action · CA-ONAlgoma Steel issues layoff notices to 1,005 unionized workers in Sault Ste. Marie, effective March 23, 2026

Algoma Steel issues layoff notices to 1,005 unionized workers in Sault Ste. Marie, effective March 23, 2026

Algoma says the notices were issued 'in connection with EAF Transition and the Company's response to the S232 Tariffs'. Job cuts were already expected from its switch to electric arc furnaces; a federal briefing note says 'tariff pressures have advanced the timeline by one year'. Severance about C$45.8M.

Documented by

• FedNor (Open Government), “Question Period Note: Closures in Northern Ontario's industrial sector (FedNor)”, 2025-12-02.
• Algoma Steel / SEC, “Algoma Steel Group Inc., Annual Information Form for 2025 (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 40-F)”, 2026-03-11.

Event · 2026-09-28 · action · CA-ONStelco says it will idle its Hamilton cold-rolled and coated lines indefinitely, affecting up to 500 employees

Stelco says it will idle its Hamilton cold-rolled and coated lines indefinitely, affecting up to 500 employees

Company memo reported by CBC: wind-down from Oct. 9, 2026; USW Local 1005 estimates 350 layoffs. Stelco cites 'ongoing and sustained trade disruptions', a market for these products that 'has contracted significantly' and high imports.

Documented by

• Radio Canada International (CBC News), “Hamilton steel plant to lay off hundreds of workers as U.S. tariffs prompt 'survival' move”, 2026-09-28.

Why the causes are mixed

In forestry, tariffs are rarely the only reason given. West Fraser put timber supply first when it closed its 100 Mile House mill (about 165 jobs); demand, duties and tariffs "compounded" it.⁸ Domtar closed its Crofton pulp mill (about 350 jobs) over pulp prices and fibre, without mentioning tariffs;⁹ Canfor's Fox Creek closure listed markets, duties and timber side by side.¹⁰ BC's usable timber was shrinking well before 2025.

Since 19 October, most Canadian softwood pays deposits of about 35% at the US border (24.75% in duties after the latest annual review, down from 35.16%, plus a 10% tariff); the reviews come every year and can go either way.¹¹¹²¹³

Event · 2026-10-14 · action · USUS Commerce issues final results of the seventh softwood lumber reviews: the 'all others' anti-dumping plus countervailing rate falls to 24.75% from 35.16%

US Commerce issues final results of the seventh softwood lumber reviews: the 'all others' anti-dumping plus countervailing rate falls to 24.75% from 35.16%

On 14 October 2026 the US Department of Commerce announced the final results of its seventh administrative reviews (AR7, covering 2024 entries) of the anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders on Canadian softwood lumber. According to Global Affairs Canada, combined rates are: Canfor 31.11% (17.00% AD + 14.11% CVD), Resolute 25.55%, West Fraser 20.02%, and 'all others' 24.75% (10.64% AD + 14.11% CVD). The notices went on public inspection on 16 October and appear in the Federal Register of 19 October 2026, applicable from that date (91 FR 66087 and 66092: non-selected companies 10.64% anti-dumping and 14.11% countervailing). The cash deposit rate they replace was 35.16%, set by the sixth reviews; it stayed in force after the preliminary seventh-review rate of 24.83% in April 2026 (Global Affairs Canada; U.S. Lumber Coalition). The 10% Section 232 tariff on softwood lumber stays in place on top. A cut in an annual trade-remedy rate, not a change in the tariff war's Section 232/338 measures.

Documented by

• Global Affairs Canada, “Softwood lumber recent developments (AR7 final results, 14 October 2026)”, 2026-10-14.
• Federal Register (US Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration), “Certain Softwood Lumber Products From Canada: Final Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review, Partial Rescission of Administrative Review, and Final Determination of No Shipments; 2024 (91 FR 66087, FR Doc. 2026-21296)”, 2026-10-19.
• Federal Register (US Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration), “Certain Softwood Lumber Products From Canada: Final Results of Countervailing Duty Administrative Review; 2024 (91 FR 66092, FR Doc. 2026-21286)”, 2026-10-19.

In autos, the end of US electric-vehicle support matters as much as tariffs. GM took a US$1.6 billion charge after the US ended EV credits and eased emissions rules, then ended electric-van production in Ingersoll, affecting more than 1,000 workers, the union says.¹⁴¹⁵ Honda, which suspended its C$15 billion Ontario EV project in May 2026, had named both US tariffs and slower EV demand.¹⁶¹⁷ Brampton is the case Unifor ties most directly to tariffs, though the plant went idle in December 2023, to retool.

Event · 2026-08-12 · statement · CA-ONStellantis tells Unifor it intends to discuss a possible sale of the Brampton Assembly Plant

Stellantis tells Unifor it intends to discuss a possible sale of the Brampton Assembly Plant

Union account (Unifor statement of 2026-08-14): no formal closure notice; more than 2,200 Local 1285 members on layoff since the plant was idled in December 2023 to retool. Unifor ties the threat to US auto tariffs.

Documented by

• Unifor, “Unifor statement on the future of Stellantis Brampton Assembly Plant”, 2026-08-14.

Consumers

So far, a small effect. The Bank of Canada estimated in October 2025 that Canada's counter-tariffs, most of them removed that September, had raised the price level by about 0.3%.¹⁸ The new ones, on C$27.6 billion of US goods since September 8, 2026,¹⁹ "could add costs for some businesses and feed into consumer prices over time", it said; nobody has yet estimated by how much.²⁰

Businesses

Firms that buy metal pay the North American price. Rio Tinto says the US premium for aluminum rose until it was "fully compensating for the 50% tariff", so its Canadian smelters kept shipping.²¹ Processors that make goods from aluminum pay that price and have lost easy access to the US market, "greatly eroding their profit margins", a federal briefing note says.²²

Exporters of finished goods are hit directly. Distillers sent about 93% of their spirits exports to the US;²³ since September 29, bottled Canadian alcohol can no longer enter.²⁴ BRP (Ski-Doo, Can-Am) expects its adjusted third-quarter earnings per share to fall 50% to 60%, "mainly due to the increased tariff impact".²⁵ And a new US tariff now reaches wood products other than lumber, on a law firm's reading of the tariff list:²⁶

Event · 2026-08-22 · action · USThe 50% Section 338 tariffs take in Canadian plywood, MDF, particle board, mouldings, doors and pulpwood; softwood lumber is spared

The 50% Section 338 tariffs take in Canadian plywood, MDF, particle board, mouldings, doors and pulpwood; softwood lumber is spared

Proclamation 11048 (July 20, 2026) excludes goods already under Section 232, which spares softwood lumber (10% under 232 plus anti-dumping and countervailing duties). A law-firm reading of Annex II lists wood products including moldings, particle board, MDF, plywood and veneered panels, doors, picture frames and pulpwood. The annex itself was not seen. Set for Aug 19, suspended, in force Aug 22.

Documented by

• The White House, “Imposing Additional Duties to Offset Canadian Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States with Respect to Motor Vehicles”, 2026-07-20.
• Congressional Research Service, “U.S. Tariffs on Canadian Imports: Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930”, 2026-09-14.
• Wiley Rein LLP, “President Trump Imposes New 50% Tariffs on Certain Canadian Imports”, 2026-07-27.

Taxpayers

Public money is both a cost and the help. Ottawa says it has provided "nearly $25 billion" in support, without a public breakdown.¹⁹ Some is in use: about 1,500 Work-Sharing agreements covered more than 54,000 workers, and Employment Insurance rules were eased.²⁷ Some is barely touched: a C$10 billion loan facility for large firms, the source of Algoma's C$400 million federal loan, had provided C$825 million by August 2026.²⁸⁵ Loans cost taxpayers only if they go bad.

Revenue fell short, and the build-out has its own bill. The Liberal platform counted C$20 billion from counter-tariffs in 2025-26; by April 2026, net revenue was C$4.3 billion.²⁹³⁰ The proposed Productivity Mega Deduction is costed at C$36 billion over five years.³¹

Trans Mountain cost C$34.2 billion, more than the budget officer's estimate of its value,³² though it now earns money and pays Ottawa.³³ The next pipeline repeats the bet: Pacific Link, listed as a project of national interest on October 1, is to be owned in equal shares by Ottawa and Alberta, with Pembina as the private investor.³⁴

First Nations

Burdens and stakes, sometimes in the same nation. The Chiefs of Ontario asked for C$66.5 million a year to keep up with faster approvals,³⁵ and the Assembly of First Nations warned that time limits on Building Canada Strong Act (C-39) would "frustrate Parliament's ability to hear from rights holders".³⁶

Pacific Link shows both at once. The Assembly of First Nations said its listing came "only 12 days after the consultation deadline",³⁷ the Union of BC Indian Chiefs vowed to fight it "in the court rooms",³⁸ and the Coldwater band, near Merritt, is considering legal action.³⁹ Fort McKay First Nation, in Alberta, welcomed the chance to take a stake: Indigenous communities are to be offered at least 10% of the pipeline, financed with loan guarantees.³⁴

Event · 2026-10-01 · statement · CAAssembly of First Nations: the Pacific Link decision came 'only 12 days after the consultation deadline'; chiefs split

Assembly of First Nations: the Pacific Link decision came 'only 12 days after the consultation deadline'; chiefs split

Indigenous communities had two months to comment on the proposed listing, after an initial one-month period was extended. The Assembly of First Nations said the decision "is coming only 12 days after the consultation deadline" and that Ottawa "appears to be predetermining outcomes and approving projects in advance of meaningful consultations." Chief Kelsey Jacko of Cold Lake First Nations said leaders of the nations "that will be heavily impacted should have been in the room"; Chief Raymond Powder of Fort McKay First Nation welcomed the chance to be an equity partner and spoke of "respectful conversations" (Global News / The Canadian Press, 2026-10-01).

Documented by

• Global News (The Canadian Press), “Indigenous groups given just 2 months to consult on Pacific Link pipeline designation”, 2026-10-01.

Event · 2026-10-01 · statement · CA-BCUnion of BC Indian Chiefs rejects the Pacific Link listing and says it will be fought in court and, if necessary, on the ground

Union of BC Indian Chiefs rejects the Pacific Link listing and says it will be fought in court and, if necessary, on the ground

The Union of BC Indian Chiefs rejected the Pacific Link designation. Grand Chief Stewart Phillip said the pipeline takes up "lands in our territories without any form of credible consultation" and that it "will be hard-fought in the court rooms, and if necessary, with boots on the ground" (The Canadian Press, 2026-10-01). No court filing was announced. UBCIC is an umbrella organization, not itself a rights-holder on the route.

Documented by

• Lethbridge News Now (The Canadian Press), “QuickQuotes: Reaction to the Pacific Link pipeline project”, 2026-10-01.
• APTN National News, “First Nations along Pacific Link pipeline denounce government over lack of consultation”, 2026-10-01.
• Union of BC Indian Chiefs, “UBCIC Rejects 'National Interest' Designation for Toxic West Coast Oil 'Pacific Link' Pipeline”, 2026-10-01.

Meanwhile, 38 BC First Nations bought 12.5% of Enbridge's Westcoast gas pipeline in 2025 with a C$400 million federal loan guarantee (36 when the deal was announced in May; 38 at closing, by the guarantor's annual report),⁴⁰⁴¹ and the Haisla Nation owns 50.1% of Cedar LNG, approved in 2024, before the trade war.⁴² Most of these stakes are financed with loans, so what the nations earn from them depends on how the projects do.

Americans

Americans pay too, mostly through prices. Across all 2025 US tariffs, the New York Fed found that "nearly 90 percent" of the burden fell on US firms and consumers.⁴³ Aluminum is one example: Alcoa says that at recent prices the US premium means tariff costs on Canadian metal are "fully covered",⁴⁴ and Molson Coors expects more than US$130 million in extra costs this year from that premium.⁴⁵

Others lost sales. After provinces pulled US alcohol from their shelves, US spirits exports to Canada fell 70% from March to December and wine exports 78% over the year.⁴⁶⁴⁷

Chart · US$ million

How to read this: One bar per period, starting at zero, so heights compare directly. Series are grouped side by side within each period, in legend order. Hover a point or bar for its exact period and value.

Source

• Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, “2025 DISCUS American Spirits Exports Report”, 2026-03-31.
• Wine Institute, “Canada Bans Cut U.S. Wine Exports 78% in 2025”, 2026-03-04.

Canadians made 25.4% fewer return trips from the US in 2025 and spent C$3.3 billion less there.⁴⁸ West Fraser closed a Georgia sawmill too (about 130 jobs), but blamed weak demand there, not tariffs.⁸

What this means for the forecast

Who pays inside a country doesn't decide the forecast; what the country nets does. "Both sides win" counts what each country gets, not who pays inside it, and it is about where things stand in 2034, not about who is ahead today. The costs are real and uneven, and mostly fall on people who will not share in a new pipeline or LNG terminal. Some may not last: duties can be revised, loans repaid, rates cut in a deal.

We don't add them into one number here: they are different kinds of cost, with different causes, and this piece is about whose livelihood carries them. What Canada nets does the adding up for the country as a whole, setting the costs our model can price against Canada's gains. By 2034, Canada comes out ahead unless most of today's tariffs are still in place; but the war years leave it behind over the decade as a whole, and the longer the tariffs last, the less of it comes back. The build-out pays for both countries; the trade war doesn't.

Claim · outcomeOn the current course, intended or not, Canada's resource build-out pays for both countries; the trade war doesn't. The US gets more supply, and the new southbound capacity arrives first, from 2027: it gets more supply either way; counted as income, the build-out pays it a little, but the trade war costs it more, so it comes out ahead in 2034 only if nearly all of today's tariff damage is gone. Canada gets a bigger resource base and the capacity to sell elsewhere, which shifts bargaining power toward it. By 2034, Canada comes out ahead unless most of today's tariffs are still in place; but the decade as a whole leaves it behind, and the longer the tariffs last, the less of it comes back.

On the current course, intended or not, Canada's resource build-out pays for both countries; the trade war doesn't. The US gets more supply, and the new southbound capacity arrives first, from 2027: it gets more supply either way; counted as income, the build-out pays it a little, but the trade war costs it more, so it comes out ahead in 2034 only if nearly all of today's tariff damage is gone. Canada gets a bigger resource base and the capacity to sell elsewhere, which shifts bargaining power toward it. By 2034, Canada comes out ahead unless most of today's tariffs are still in place; but the decade as a whole leaves it behind, and the longer the tariffs last, the less of it comes back.

Rests on 10 pieces of evidence

We will update this accounting when the new counter-tariffs show up in prices and when the Brampton talks end.