Pre-registered prediction P7Open
Churchill Falls definitive agreements by 2027-03-31
This test belongs to the thought experiment about US intent: it states in advance what each reading expects, so the result can count for or against any of them, including the foresight reading.
- Registered
- Window
- 27 September 2026 to 31 March 2027
Framework expiry 2027-03-31; secondary checkpoint 2027-12-31 - Status
- Open: The window has not closed; nothing has settled it yet.
Articles that cite this record
What counts
The question: are the final (definitive) Churchill Falls agreements signed before the framework agreement expires on 31 March 2027? And does the new Quebec government (probably the Parti Quebecois) try to reopen the deal's Material Terms?
What counts as signed: the parties have executed the full, definitive agreements by 31 March 2027. If the framework is extended without the agreements being signed, it counts as not signed by 31 March 2027, and we record it as "extended".
What counts as reopening: the Quebec government formally seeks to change the Material Terms, through an official act or document. A campaign or media statement (such as "verify every detail") is logged but does not count.
How we check: we also record whether two conditions were met: the condition on the Innu benefits agreement, and the exemption from the Public Utilities Board.
What each reading expects
| Reading | Expects | If seen |
|---|---|---|
| I0b Plain self-interest; Canada's response not considered Tested hypothesis (intent) | No different prediction from the other readings on this test. | No change |
| I2 Foreseen and wanted (this level or higher) Tested hypothesis (intent) | No different prediction from the other readings on this test. | No change |
| R-weaken Weaken-Canada rivals (annexation or fragmentation) Rival reading | No different prediction from the other readings on this test. | No change |
Observations
- Churchill Falls / Gull Island Definitive Cooperation and Implementation Agreement (DCIA) signed; mostly non-binding
Baseline: non-binding Churchill Falls / Gull Island framework announced; definitive agreements due by 2026-12-31. This test asks whether they are signed by 2027-03-31. Not scored.
- St-Pierre Plamondon: a PQ government would not tear up the Churchill Falls deal if it is good, but would check every detail
PQ 'verify every detail' / won't tear it up 'if good': a campaign statement, logged but not a formal reopening under this test's rule.
- NL House of Assembly passes a resolution to proceed with the Churchill Falls deal, 21–18
Baseline before the window: NL House resolution 21–18 to proceed; final approval by cabinet and boards. Signing conditions outstanding (assignment of the Innu impact and benefit agreement, the Public Utilities Board exemption, 2012 permits still valid).
- Quebec general election: the Parti Québécois wins 59 of 127 seats, short of a majority; the CAQ is shut out (preliminary results)
The PQ will form the new Quebec government (minority); reopening the Material Terms is now a PQ-government question.
- Wakeham unworried by the PQ win: confident the new premier will see the Churchill Falls deal as good; the border question is settled Caution: second-hand account
After the PQ win, Newfoundland and Labrador's premier said he was confident the new premier would see the deal as good, and Ottawa called the project one it makes possible; no post-election PQ statement on the deal was found. Logged, does not count.