ClaimOutcome
New electricity export lines run south, not overseas. Two lines, to New England and New York, entered service in 2026 under contracts signed before the tariffs (about 20 TWh a year). But they mostly make up for sales Hydro-Québec is losing elsewhere: comparing a normal water year with a normal water year, Canada's energy regulator puts electricity exports at about 59 TWh in 2024 and about 57 TWh in 2034, so in the journal's model power adds about nothing to what reaches the US, like for like. The model doesn't forecast rain and snow. One caveat: 2024 was actually a drought year (Canada exported only about 36 TWh), so if 2034 is a normal year, the check in 2034 will make electricity look about US$2 billion a year better, for reasons that have nothing to do with building. The Churchill Falls deal adds no new line to the US; its power goes mainly to Quebec.
Articles that cite this record
The evidence it rests on
Supports (3)
- New England Clean Energy Connect (NECEC, a 1,200 MW high-voltage direct current line from Quebec to New England) enters commercial operation
1,200 MW south to New England, 2018 contract.
Documented by: Hydro-Québec, “Hydro-Québec Form 18-K for 2025” (external site), . and 2 more
- Champlain Hudson Power Express (1,250 MW, Québec to New York City) enters commercial operation
1,250 MW to New York City, 2021 contract.
Documented by: HVDC World, “Champlain Hudson Power Express Enters Commercial Operation Early” (external site), . and 1 more
- Hydro-Québec was a net buyer of about 3.4 TWh on outside markets in 2025, a third straight low-runoff year (a net seller of about 5.7 TWh in 2024)
Hydro-Québec was a net buyer of about 3.4 TWh on outside markets in 2025, a third low-runoff year, and cut exports to rebuild its reservoirs: the new lines south partly make up for sales lost in dry years.
Documented by: Hydro-Québec, “Hydro-Québec Form 18-K for 2025” (external site), .
Complicates (2)
- Ontario puts a 25% surcharge on electricity exported to three US states; after Trump threatens 50% steel and aluminum tariffs, both back down
Ontario briefly used electricity exports to the US as leverage: a 25% export surcharge that applied for one day in March 2025.
Documented by: CBC News, “Ontario slaps 25% levy on U.S.-bound electricity in latest trade war volley” (external site), . and 2 more
- Massachusetts utilities sue Hydro-Québec for $40 million over missed NECEC deliveries; Hydro-Québec sues them for $50 million
Delivery shortfalls and lawsuits on NECEC.
Documented by: Canary Media, “Mass. utilities and Hydro-Quebec sue each other over missing hydropower” (external site), .
Context (2)
- Churchill Falls / Gull Island Definitive Cooperation and Implementation Agreement (DCIA) signed; mostly non-binding
Churchill Falls power goes mainly to Quebec, not new US lines.
Documented by: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, “Newfoundland and Labrador Reaches Historic Deal with Government of Quebec and Government of Canada to Develop Churchill Falls and Gull Island” (external site), . and 9 more
- Hydro-Québec says its sales outside Quebec averaged about 13¢/kWh in Q1 2026 and NECEC deliveries about 9¢
Hydro-Québec says its sales outside Quebec averaged about 13¢/kWh in early 2026 and its NECEC deliveries about 9¢: the price side of the lines south, in its own figures.
Documented by: Hydro-Québec (Nouvelles), “Hydro-Québec ne vend pas son électricité moins cher aux États-Unis” (external site), .
Claims are weighed by the evidence under them, actions first. Method.