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Predictions scorecard

Tests set before the results were known: each says what would count, over which window, and what each reading expects. Results are recorded whichever way they go, including against the journal’s own readings.

21 of 21 predictions shownClear filters

All predictions
CodePredictionRegisteredStatusLogged
P1"No deal before the law" (a test of the foresight thought experiment)26 September 2026Open7
P2Annexation rival: no deal, whatever Canada passes26 September 2026Open4
P3No plan: impulse or US domestic politics26 September 2026Open0
P4Capital follows the law26 September 2026Open10
P5Pressure returns if the build-out stalls27 September 2026Open2
P6Tariff-action test around the new laws27 September 2026Open2
P7Churchill Falls definitive agreements by 2027-03-3127 September 2026Open5
P8BC Bill 15 switched on within 12 months of the 2026-10-24 election27 September 2026Open1
P9Quebec fast-track test, strict and loose, by 2027-10-0527 September 2026Open3
P10Fragmentation watch27 September 2026Open22 (1 count)
P11Alberta referendum, 2026-10-1927 September 2026Open2
P12October platforms: "soft before, hard after"27 September 2026Open1
P13Next Conservative federal platform27 September 2026Open3
P14"Was it foreseen?" (foresight test 1)
Result: Nothing found tied to administration circles, in the foresight search and its follow-up. Outside analysts did warn that pressure could push Canada to diversify, but none of them close to the …
27 September 2026Scored7 (1 count)
P15"Asymmetry" (foresight test 2)27 September 2026Open8
P16"Rerouting constraint" (foresight test 3)27 September 2026Open7
P17"Shared skies hold"28 September 2026Open3
P18"Normal diplomatic posture"28 September 2026Open0
P19"Gripen triggers NORAD threat"28 September 2026Open2
P20"NATO-invasion bill stays parked"28 September 2026Open2
P21"The build-out laws outlast the campaign"4 October 2026Open1

“Logged” is how many observations have been recorded against each test; only those marked as counting feed the result. How predictions work.