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Pre-registered prediction P8Open

BC Bill 15 switched on within 12 months of the 2026-10-24 election

This test belongs to the thought experiment about US intent: it states in advance what each reading expects, so the result can count for or against any of them, including the foresight reading.

Registered
Window
24 October 2026 to 24 October 2027
BC election 2026-10-24; sub-check 2026-12-01
Status
Open: The window has not closed; nothing has settled it yet.

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What counts

The question: within 12 months of the BC election of 24 October 2026 (that is, by 24 October 2027), are the fast-track powers in BC's Bill 15 (sections 1 and 3 to 47) switched on, and are they used? If a Conservative government wins, we record whether it switches Bill 15 on, amends it or repeals it.

What counts as a hit: a cabinet order (an order in council) brings sections 1 and 3 to 47 into force by 24 October 2027. They were not in force on 22 September 2026. If only some of those sections are brought into force, it counts as "partly". The powers count as used if at least one project is designated or fast-tracked under them.

How we check: any amendment or repeal is recorded separately. We also check the Canada-BC agreement's deliverables due on 1 December 2026: whether each came on time (the pipeline royalty, federal money for the transmission line, Red Chris, Roberts Bank and LNG financing), and whether the tanker ban is unchanged.

What each reading expects

ReadingExpectsIf seen
I0b Plain self-interest; Canada's response not considered
Tested hypothesis (intent)		No different prediction from the other readings on this test.No change
I2 Foreseen and wanted (this level or higher)
Tested hypothesis (intent)		No different prediction from the other readings on this test.No change
R-weaken Weaken-Canada rivals (annexation or fragmentation)
Rival reading		No different prediction from the other readings on this test.No change

Observations