Pre-registered prediction P19Open

"Gripen triggers NORAD threat"

Registered

28 September 2026

Window

28 September 2026 to 30 June 2027
Conditional: Canada selects the Gripen for any of the remaining fighters before 2027-06-30; Hoekstra ~2026-01-26 ('NORAD would have to be altered')

Status

Open: The window has not closed; nothing has settled it yet.

What counts

Conditional prediction: IF the Government of Canada formally selects the Saab Gripen for any of the remaining fighter aircraft before 2027-06-30, THEN within 30 days of that selection a US official at ambassador level or above publicly says NORAD will change (altered, reduced, reviewed or ended) because of it. Our probability: about 45% (range 19% to 81%), from our model of US allies' and partners' choices of non-US fighters or air defences under President Trump: Washington reacted at this level within 30 days only where it had warned in public beforehand, as the ambassador did for Canada; a Gripen buy for only part of the fleet makes a repeat less likely. Scored only if the condition occurs; if no Gripen selection by 2027-06-30, the prediction expires unscored. Counts: on-record statement by the ambassador, a cabinet secretary, NORTHCOM/NORAD commander, the White House or the President.

Observations

• 26 January 2026Logged only

  Hoekstra at Luke AFB: 'NORAD would have to be altered' if Canada drops the F-35; asked about the US as a threat: 'That's crazy. We're not a threat.'

  Baseline: the ambassador already tied NORAD's shape to Canada's fighter choice in January 2026; no Gripen has been formally selected, so the condition has not occurred.

• 27 June 2026Logged only

  Hoekstra on a possible mixed fighter fleet: 'One decision will not kill Norad'

  Before any Gripen selection: the ambassador said a mixed fleet would not 'kill Norad', while calling fighters that don't link to the F-35 'a problem'. It softens his January warning for a partial Gripen buy, the case P19 tests.

Corrections

• 6 October 2026New evidenceUpdate

  Update: the probability now comes from our model, with rules written and frozen before publication. Of 18 formal decisions (choices, cuts or deliveries) on non-US combat aircraft or air defences by US allies and partners under President Trump (2017-2021 and since 2025), one followed a public warning at ambassador level or above naming a consequence (the delivery of Turkey's S-400, 2019), and it drew one within 30 days; none of the 17 others did. President Trump's 2018 remark that India would 'find out' named no consequence and does not count. The model applies a factor of 0.6 because a Gripen buy for part of the fleet keeps the F-35, and the ambassador said in June 2026 that 'one decision will not kill Norad' (CTV News, 27 June 2026).

  What counts

  wasConditional prediction: IF the Government of Canada formally selects the Saab Gripen for any of the remaining fighter aircraft before 2027-06-30, THEN within 30 days of that selection a US official at ambassador level or above publicly says NORAD will change (altered, reduced, reviewed or ended) because of it. Our probability ~60% (range 55-65%). Scored only if the condition occurs; if no Gripen selection by 2027-06-30, the prediction expires unscored. Counts: on-record statement by the ambassador, a cabinet secretary, NORTHCOM/NORAD commander, the White House or the President. nowConditional prediction: IF the Government of Canada formally selects the Saab Gripen for any of the remaining fighter aircraft before 2027-06-30, THEN within 30 days of that selection a US official at ambassador level or above publicly says NORAD will change (altered, reduced, reviewed or ended) because of it. Our probability: about 45% (range 19% to 81%), from our model of US allies' and partners' choices of non-US fighters or air defences under President Trump: Washington reacted at this level within 30 days only where it had warned in public beforehand, as the ambassador did for Canada; a Gripen buy for only part of the fleet makes a repeat less likely. Scored only if the condition occurs; if no Gripen selection by 2027-06-30, the prediction expires unscored. Counts: on-record statement by the ambassador, a cabinet secretary, NORTHCOM/NORAD commander, the White House or the President.

  What counts fr

  wasPrédiction conditionnelle : SI le gouvernement du Canada choisit officiellement le Saab Gripen pour une partie des chasseurs restants avant le 30 juin 2027, ALORS, dans les 30 jours suivant ce choix, un responsable américain de rang d'ambassadeur ou plus élevé dit publiquement que le NORAD changera (modifié, réduit, réexaminé ou aboli) à cause de ce choix. Notre probabilité : environ 60 % (fourchette de 55 à 65 %). Évaluée seulement si la condition se réalise; si aucun Gripen n'est choisi d'ici le 30 juin 2027, la prédiction expire sans être évaluée. Comptent : une déclaration officielle de l'ambassadeur, d'un secrétaire du cabinet, du commandant du NORTHCOM ou du NORAD, de la Maison-Blanche ou du président. nowPrédiction conditionnelle : SI le gouvernement du Canada choisit officiellement le Saab Gripen pour une partie des chasseurs restants avant le 30 juin 2027, ALORS, dans les 30 jours suivant ce choix, un responsable américain de rang d'ambassadeur ou plus élevé dit publiquement que le NORAD changera (modifié, réduit, réexaminé ou aboli) à cause de ce choix. Notre probabilité : environ 45 % (fourchette de 19 % à 81 %), selon notre modèle des choix de chasseurs ou de défenses aériennes non américains faits par des alliés et partenaires des États-Unis sous le président Trump : Washington n'a réagi à ce niveau dans les 30 jours que là où il avait d'abord prévenu en public, comme l'ambassadeur l'a fait pour le Canada; un achat de Gripen pour une partie seulement de la flotte rend une répétition moins probable. Évaluée seulement si la condition se réalise; si aucun Gripen n'est choisi d'ici le 30 juin 2027, la prédiction expire sans être évaluée. Comptent : une déclaration officielle de l'ambassadeur, d'un secrétaire du cabinet, du commandant du NORTHCOM ou du NORAD, de la Maison-Blanche ou du président.