Pre-registered prediction P3Open
No plan: impulse or US domestic politics
This test belongs to the thought experiment about US intent: it states in advance what each reading expects, so the result can count for or against any of them, including the foresight reading.
- Registered
- Window
- No fixed dates
Canada's lock-in milestones: the Royal Assent of Bill C-39 and of the bill containing the Mega Deduction (the start date A of the "No deal before the law" test) - Status
- Open: The window has not closed; nothing has settled it yet.
Latest articles
No article cites this record yet.
What counts
The claim: the timing of any deal has nothing to do with Canadian legislation. "No plan" covers two readings: accident (impulse, grudges, domestic politics) and plain self-interest (no plan for Canada, but each move serves US advantage).
Supported if a deal comes or collapses at a moment unrelated to the lock-in milestones: before Royal Assent, or long after it for reasons clearly tied to US domestic events.
Pressure that continues past A with no break at A, and with the exemptions for raw resources intact, tilts toward the plain self-interest reading rather than the foresight reading. The test of the tariff structure can only count against the foresight reading, since the plain self-interest reading also predicts that the exemptions survive.
What each reading expects
| Reading | Expects | If seen |
|---|---|---|
| I0a Accident Tested hypothesis (intent) | Deal comes or collapses at a moment unrelated to the lock-in milestones | Counts for it |
| I0b Plain self-interest; Canada's response not considered Tested hypothesis (intent) | Pressure continues past A with no break at A and the raw-resource exemptions intact | Counts for it |
Observations
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