Pre-registered prediction P4Open

Capital follows the law

Registered

26 September 2026

Window

No fixed dates
A = the later of two dates: the Royal Assent of Bill C-39 and the Royal Assent of the bill containing the Productivity Mega Deduction; window A to A+12 months

Status

Open: The window has not closed; nothing has settled it yet.

What counts

The claim: Canada's investment gap was a permitting discount, not a geology discount. If so, committed capital rises noticeably within 12 months of A for projects on the investment summit's 167-project list. "Committed" means final investment decisions, signed financing and allocations of funds to specific projects, not announcements.

Supported if commitments cluster after Royal Assent and investors cite the law. Weakened if capital stays at the "interested" stage, or the projects that do move are ones that were already moving before the law.

Indicator: Enbridge Mainline Phase 2, postponed, would revive once C-39 passes, the Mega Deduction is enacted and the Pathways agreement becomes binding. We log whether it revives inside the window, and whether Enbridge cites the laws.

Also recorded: the nationality of the lead investors in funded projects: American (for example BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo, KKR), other foreign (Gulf funds, Temasek, Norway's fund) or Canadian (pension funds, Brookfield). A mix led by US investors supports "integration through ownership"; a global or Canadian mix does not.

Observations

• 1 May 2026Logged only

  LNG Canada partners approve 'hundreds of millions of dollars' in pre-FID funding for Phase 2

  Baseline before the start date: LNG Canada Phase 2 spending before the final investment decision, and the co-operation agreement (05-14), predate both laws; a Phase 2 final investment decision (reported possible from Oct 2026) would be a project 'already moving before the law'. Confidence: medium.

• 15 June 2026Logged only

  Financial Times reports that the Major Projects Office told a UAE delegation Canada lacked projects ready for its pledged investment; none has been deployed ⚠ Caution: anonymous sources

  Before the start date: UAE capital (US$50B framework) waiting; the Major Projects Office reportedly lacked shovel-ready projects. Mid-June; exact date unverified. Confidence: medium.

• 31 July 2026Logged only

  Enbridge postpones Mainline Optimization Phase 2 (+250,000 barrels a day, Alberta to North Dakota) because producers won't commit

  Enbridge Mainline Phase 2 (+250 kb/d) postponed because producers would not commit (price volatility; the Pathways agreement non-binding). This is the indicator named in this test: log whether it revives after C-39 passes, the Mega Deduction is enacted and the Pathways agreement becomes binding. Not scored. Confidence: medium.

• 4 August 2026Logged only

  Ottawa moves to list the Alberta-backed West Coast oil pipeline as a national-interest project; Alberta is the proponent and Pembina holds 10%

  Baseline before the start date: the West Coast pipeline is state-led (Alberta proponent, Pembina 10% plus an option); private capital is still at the 'interested' stage. Confidence: medium.

• 14 September 2026Logged only

  Canada Investment Summit in Toronto, hosted by the Prime Minister's Office with CPP Investments and PSP Investments

  The investment summit ran 14–15 September. Of the ~C$500B pledged, about C$325B came from Canadian banks and ~C$100B from Canadian pensions and insurers; no US asset manager is named in the government release. Bears on ownership.

• 14 September 2026Logged only

  Canada Investment Summit in Toronto, hosted by the Prime Minister's Office with CPP Investments and PSP Investments

  Canada Investment Summit, Toronto, 14–15 September 2026: C$1T five-year target, 167-project prospectus; Fink (BlackRock), Temasek, Norway's fund and ADNOC among attendees (CBC, BNN Bloomberg).

• 15 September 2026Logged only

  Larry Fink (BlackRock) at the Canada Investment Summit: the announcements are "opening up the opportunities to bring forth more capital to Canada"

  Fink (BlackRock) says the summit's announcements are 'opening up the opportunities to bring forth more capital to Canada', after years of struggling to find deals there. Interest conditional on projects materialising, not committed capital, and not tied to a specific law passing. Does not count; context for the test.

• 22 September 2026Logged only

  Three teams shortlisted for the ~$1B Grays Bay major-works contract (Kiewit; Ledcor/Bird; Samsung C&T/Webuild)

  Before the start date: Grays Bay bid underway (preferred bidder Mar 2027); public tender volumes otherwise flat across jurisdictions. Confidence: medium.

• 29 September 2026Logged only

  LNG Canada's partners take the final investment decision on Phase 2, to double the Kitimat plant's capacity to 28 million tonnes a year

  LNG Canada Phase 2's final investment decision (29 September 2026) came before A (C-39 and the Mega Deduction not yet law), so it counts as a project already moving before the law.

• 30 September 2026Logged only

  Ksi Lisims LNG announces a 20-year agreement to supply Centrica with 1 million tonnes a year, ahead of its final investment decision ⚠ Caution: single source

  A 20-year supply agreement, binding status not given, for a project that was already moving while neither C-39 nor the Mega Deduction was law; no investment decision yet and no citation of the laws. Logged; the test reads commitments after Royal Assent.

Corrections

• 3 October 2026Review pass

  Restores the claim being tested and the investor-nationality rule, both part of the prediction as registered on 26 September 2026; the tests themselves are unchanged.

  What counts

  wasSupported if commitments cluster after Royal Assent and investors cite the law. Weakened if capital stays at the "interested" stage, or the projects that do move are ones that were already moving before the law. Indicator: Enbridge Mainline Phase 2, postponed, would revive once C-39 passes, the Mega Deduction is enacted and the Pathways agreement becomes binding. We log whether it revives inside the window, and whether Enbridge cites the laws. nowThe claim: Canada's investment gap was a permitting discount, not a geology discount. If so, committed capital rises noticeably within 12 months of A for projects on the investment summit's 167-project list. "Committed" means final investment decisions, signed financing and allocations of funds to specific projects, not announcements. Supported if commitments cluster after Royal Assent and investors cite the law. Weakened if capital stays at the "interested" stage, or the projects that do move are ones that were already moving before the law. Indicator: Enbridge Mainline Phase 2, postponed, would revive once C-39 passes, the Mega Deduction is enacted and the Pathways agreement becomes binding. We log whether it revives inside the window, and whether Enbridge cites the laws. Also recorded: the nationality of the lead investors in funded projects: American (for example BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo, KKR), other foreign (Gulf funds, Temasek, Norway's fund) or Canadian (pension funds, Brookfield). A mix led by US investors supports "integration through ownership"; a global or Canadian mix does not.

  What counts fr

  wasAppuyée si les engagements se concentrent après la sanction royale et que les investisseurs citent la loi. Affaiblie si les capitaux en restent au stade de l'« intérêt », ou si les projets qui avancent sont ceux qui avançaient déjà avant la loi. Indicateur : la phase 2 du réseau principal d'Enbridge, reportée, serait relancée une fois C-39 adopté, la Mégadéduction édictée et l'entente Pathways devenue contraignante. Nous consignons si elle est relancée pendant la fenêtre, et si Enbridge cite les lois. nowAffirmation : l'écart d'investissement du Canada tenait aux permis, non à la géologie. Si c'est le cas, les capitaux engagés augmentent nettement dans les 12 mois suivant A pour les projets de la liste de 167 projets du sommet sur l'investissement. « Engagés » signifie des décisions finales d'investissement, du financement signé et des fonds attribués à des projets précis, pas des annonces. Appuyée si les engagements se concentrent après la sanction royale et que les investisseurs citent la loi. Affaiblie si les capitaux en restent au stade de l'« intérêt », ou si les projets qui avancent sont ceux qui avançaient déjà avant la loi. Indicateur : la phase 2 du réseau principal d'Enbridge, reportée, serait relancée une fois C-39 adopté, la Mégadéduction édictée et l'entente Pathways devenue contraignante. Nous consignons si elle est relancée pendant la fenêtre, et si Enbridge cite les lois. Aussi consignée : la nationalité des investisseurs principaux des projets financés : américains (par exemple BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo, KKR), autres étrangers (fonds du Golfe, Temasek, fonds de la Norvège) ou canadiens (caisses de retraite, Brookfield). Un ensemble dominé par des investisseurs américains appuie l'« intégration par la propriété »; un ensemble mondial ou canadien, non.