Pre-registered prediction P10Open
Fragmentation watch
This test belongs to the thought experiment about US intent: it states in advance what each reading expects, so the result can count for or against any of them, including the foresight reading.
- Registered
- Window
- 27 September 2026
Open-ended; reviewed at A+120 days (A = the later Royal Assent of Bill C-39 and of the bill containing the Mega Deduction) - Status
- Open: The window has not closed; nothing has settled it yet.
Articles that cite this record
What counts
The question: is there confirmed evidence that the US is trying to break Canada apart (the fragmentation reading) rather than wanting it to build (the foresight reading)?
What counts as a hit: any confirmed item of these kinds counts for fragmentation over the foresight reading: US tariff offers or rates that differ by province (including who approached Quebec in spring 2026, and on whose mandate); US contacts with Quebec or Alberta separatists; US funding for Indigenous land litigation; any US move that undercuts Ottawa's ability to pass or use C-39; and the US reaction in the weeks after C-39 passes.
How much it counts: confirmed province-specific US tariff offers, or confirmed US funding of Indigenous litigation, count for fragmentation and against the foresight reading. If both are confirmed, they count strongly for the readings in which the US aims to weaken Canada (annexation or fragmentation).
How we check: "confirmed" means an action or a formal document, shown by a primary source or by at least two independent reports. Statements, and single reports from anonymous sources, are logged but don't count.
A limit: covert moves don't show up in public sources, so a blank means "not observed", not "absent".
What each reading expects
| Reading | Expects | If seen |
|---|---|---|
| I0b Plain self-interest; Canada's response not considered Tested hypothesis (intent) | No specific prediction | No change |
| I2 Foreseen and wanted (this level or higher) Tested hypothesis (intent) | US quiet or helpful while Ottawa passes C-39; no support for Indigenous litigation; no province-specific offers; easing within the window of the "No deal before the law" test | Counts for it |
| R-annex Annexation Rival reading | Pressure on Ottawa whatever it does; indifferent on litigation; possible provincial offers; no easing or escalation | Counts for it |
| R-frag Fragmentation Rival reading | US moves undercutting Ottawa; support for Indigenous litigation; offers to provinces around Ottawa; no easing, engagement with provinces | Counts for it |
Observations
- Financial Times reports State Department meetings with Alberta separatists; Treasury Secretary Bessent calls Alberta a 'natural partner' Caution: self-reported
Bessent calls Alberta a 'natural partner for the U.S.' (Real America's Voice, 2026-01-22/23). A statement; under this test's rule statements are logged but don't count. Confidence: medium.
- Journal de Montréal reports Ottawa warned Quebec of possible US interference to help an independentist government Caution: unproven allegation
Reported possible US interference to help an independentist Quebec government: unproven, single report; St-Pierre Plamondon denies any US contact. Logged, does not count. Confidence: medium.
- Unnamed Quebec government sources: the US Embassy approached the Fréchette government in recent months about negotiating tariffs directly with Quebec Caution: anonymous sources
Province-specific US tariff approach to Quebec reported by two anonymous sources (Noovo/Québecor); no negotiations took place. Single report from anonymous sources: logged, does not count.
- Fréchette confirms a US approach last spring seeking a Quebec-only deal on USMCA-linked sectors, which she says she turned down Caution: anonymous sources
The premier confirmed on the record a US approach last spring seeking a Quebec-only deal on CUSMA-linked sectors, which she turned down. Who made it, and on whose mandate, is not confirmed: the US Embassy detail rests on unnamed sources. A confirmed approach with no confirmed author does not count under this test's rule. Logged, does not count yet. Confidence: high.
- Metlakatla and Lax Kw'alaams withdraw Federal Court challenges to Ksi Lisims LNG after benefit agreements with the project, led by Houston-based Western LNG
The only new US money seen since 2025 is private (Western LNG), and it ended two lawsuits; it is not funding of Indigenous litigation by the US government or the US right. Confidence: high.
- US Embassy Ottawa posts its FY25 public-diplomacy grants notice (awards of US$15,000–100,000; programs 'must align with U.S. administration priorities')
US government money into Canada since 2025 is small public-diplomacy money with no Indigenous, land-claims or litigation component; no new State Department Indigenous-scholar program found. 'Not observed', not 'absent'. Confidence: high.
- First Nations file a constitutional challenge to Ontario's Bill 5 (special economic zones) and federal Bill C-5 in the Ontario Superior Court, seeking C$100M and injunctions
New suits since 2025 (Ontario Bill 5/C-5, SEZ, Webequie judicial review, Alberta referendum and MOU suits): no funder identified, no link to the US government or the US right observed. Confidence: high.
- US think tank DARC blog post proposes 'covert support for PQ ahead of the election' Caution: unproven allegation
The 'interference' material is a private US think tank's public blog proposal; the intelligence service called it already known and public, and Anand and Fréchette say there is no proof. No US government act or document: does not count.
- US Embassy says the PQ requested a State Department meeting in Washington for early March 2026, which did not take place; the PQ says it only told the US consulate of a possible trip Caution: second-hand account
The US Embassy says the PQ asked for a State Department meeting in early March 2026 that did not take place; the State Department declined to confirm; the PQ says it only told the consulate of a planned trip. A PQ step, no meeting, statements only: logged, does not count. Confidence: medium.
- Quebec general election: the Parti Québécois wins 59 of 127 seats, short of a majority; the CAQ is shut out (preliminary results)
No US official commented publicly on the PQ win or on sovereignty on 5-6 October; the US embassy's X feed showed no post on it. Logged, does not count.
- PSPP denies seeking a State Department meeting, calls the report a 'manœuvre', and says his team only told the US consulate of a planned US tour Caution: self-reported
The PQ leader denies seeking a State Department meeting and says his team only told the US consulate of a planned trip. A denial, no confirmed contact: logged, does not count. Confidence: medium.
- State Department declines to confirm the PQ meeting request and says the election is Quebecers' decision Caution: second-hand account
The State Department declines to confirm the PQ's meeting request and says the election is for Quebecers to decide. A statement, no act: logged, does not count. Confidence: high.
- DARC post 'Our Canadian Problem' says the US 'could support the Alberta and Quebec separatist movements' Caution: unproven allegation
A private US think tank's 2025 blog post saying the US could support Alberta and Quebec separatists. No US government act or document, no contact shown: logged, does not count. Confidence: high.
- DARC post 'The Trump Corollary' says the US government 'should seriously consider support for Canadian separatist movements' Caution: unproven allegation
A second DARC post (November 2025) urging the US government to consider supporting Canadian separatist movements. A private proposal, not a US act: logged, does not count. Confidence: high.
- CSIS says it proactively offered foreign-interference briefings to all Quebec political parties in June Caution: self-reported
The intelligence service says it offered foreign-interference briefings to all Quebec parties in June, as a routine step; no authority reports US interference: logged, does not count. Confidence: high.
- Hours after calling the reports 'serious', Fréchette's written statement says no information confirming interference has been received
The premier's written statement says no information confirming interference in the election has been received. No confirmed US act: logged, does not count. Confidence: high.
- US miner Newmont announces a C$8M community investment for three Tahltan communities at the Red Chris mine Caution: self-reported
Newmont, a US miner, put C$8 million into three Tahltan communities at its Red Chris mine: private community money, not funding for litigation: logged, does not count. Confidence: high.
- Lummi Nation and a Southeast Alaska tribal commission seek leave to intervene in the Gitxaała appeal at the Supreme Court of Canada
US tribal nations seek leave to intervene in the Gitxaała appeal at the Supreme Court of Canada. They are not the US government, and the docket shows counsel, not who pays: logged, does not count. Confidence: high.
- Ecojustice's T3010 for fiscal 2025 reports C$1.48M from sources outside Canada, 13% of revenue, up from C$1.06M (9%) a year earlier
Ecojustice reported more revenue from outside Canada in its year to October 2025 (C$1.48 million), with no donor or country named. Not shown to be US money, or to fund a given case: logged, does not count. Confidence: medium.
- Elon Musk posts on X that Quebec, Alberta and Saskatchewan should separate from Canada Caution: second-hand account
Musk (private US citizen, no government post) posted support for Quebec, Alberta and Saskatchewan separation on X. A statement by a non-official: logged, does not count (P10 needs a confirmed US action or formal document).
- Globe and Mail report: Alberta Prosperity Project co-founder says the group gave State Department officials a document offering water, oil royalties and rail land for help with independence Caution: unproven allegation
New claim that Alberta separatists offered the State Department resources for independence help, from one participant's account; disputed by APP's CEO; State Dept: no commitments. US contacts with separatists are a P10 category, but this is a statement-level report about the separatists' offer, not a confirmed US action or document: logged, does not count.
- State Department on the Alberta separatist meetings: 'routine' civil-society meetings, 'no commitments were made'
Counts as a confirmed US contact with Alberta separatists: the State Department itself confirms the three 2025 meetings with the Alberta Prosperity Project (to Newsweek, 9 Oct 2026; the US Embassy repeated it on 21 Oct). The US side says they were staff-level, with no senior officials and no commitments, and that there will be no further meeting. Nothing in the record shows US support behind them; the test counts the contact, not support.