Pre-registered prediction P6Open
Tariff-action test around the new laws
This test belongs to the thought experiment about US intent: it states in advance what each reading expects, so the result can count for or against any of them, including the foresight reading.
- Registered
- Window
- No fixed dates
A = the later of two dates: the Royal Assent of Bill C-39 and the Royal Assent of the bill containing the Productivity Mega Deduction; windows A-120 to A+120 days - Status
- Open: The window has not closed; nothing has settled it yet.
Articles that cite this record
What counts
The question: do new US trade restrictions on Canada drop once Canada's two new laws are in place? We compare the 120 days before the date the second of the two laws receives Royal Assent with the 120 days after it.
What counts as a hit: strictly fewer new US restrictive actions aimed at Canada in the 120 days after that date than in the 120 days before it (a tie counts as no drop), and at least one easing act in the 120 days after, whatever happens to US provocations. A hit supports the foresight reading in its minimal form.
The start date, which we call A: the later of two dates, the Royal Assent of Bill C-39 and the Royal Assent of the bill that contains the Productivity Mega Deduction. The dates the laws come into force are recorded too. The test is scored at A + 120 days, the same date as the "No deal before the law" test, which this test sharpens.
What we count (from the journal's timeline; every event counted is listed below as an observation, so readers can check the count): (a) new US restrictive actions aimed at Canada: tariff increases, talks broken off, and new import bans or exclusions from government purchasing. Each is dated by when it was signed or announced; the effective date of a measure announced earlier doesn't count. Worldwide measures that also cover Canada go in a separate "global" tally. (b) Easing acts: tariff cuts, exemptions, suspensions and framework deals. (c) Provocations: US insults, jabs and taunts about Canada's sovereignty, counted as episodes under the rules of the journal's provocations catalogue.
What the other readings predict: under the plain self-interest reading, and under pressure driven by hostility, (a) and (c) keep following Canadian defiance or US domestic events, with no break at A. The annexation and fragmentation readings predict no drop in (a); fragmentation also predicts offers aimed at single provinces (logged in the "Fragmentation watch").
How the result is read: in one direction only, like the "No deal before the law" test. Continued US pressure after A is no evidence either way, at most a slight tilt toward the plain self-interest reading. Only sustained escalation that damages the flow of resources south to the US counts against the foresight reading.
How we check: a US action that comes within 3 days after a Canadian act of retaliation or defiance counts for the rival readings. If Canada imposes new retaliation in the 120 days after A, the result is marked "contaminated". For both periods we record the events counted, the events left out by the 3-day rule, and the global tally, all listed as observations. If A never arrives (for example, if C-39 dies), this test doesn't start; the "Pressure returns if the build-out stalls" test does.
A limit: other milestones may fall in the same period: the choice of bidder for Grays Bay (March 2027) and the start of construction on the West Coast pipeline (September 2027). LNG Canada Phase 2's final investment decision came on 29 September 2026, before A. A deal then would coincide both with the laws and with the projects being physically committed. We record which of these fall inside each period.
What each reading expects
| Reading | Expects | If seen |
|---|---|---|
| I0b Plain self-interest; Canada's response not considered Tested hypothesis (intent) | (a) Restrictive actions and (c) provocations keep tracking Canadian defiance or US domestic triggers, no break at A | Counts for it |
| I2 Foreseen and wanted (this level or higher) Tested hypothesis (intent) | (a) New US restrictive actions after A fewer than before A, and at least one easing act after A | Counts for it |
| R-weaken Weaken-Canada rivals (annexation or fragmentation) Rival reading | No drop in (a) restrictive actions; fragmentation also predicts offers aimed at single provinces | Counts for it |
Observations
- US Commerce issues final results of the seventh softwood lumber reviews: the 'all others' anti-dumping plus countervailing rate falls to 24.75% from 35.16%
Candidate (b) easing act (tariff cut): AR7 final lowers the softwood AD/CVD 'all others' rate from 35.16% to 24.75%, announced 2026-10-14. A is not yet set (C-39 in committee, Mega Deduction not tabled), so it cannot yet be placed in the A-120 / A+120 windows. Note it is a routine annual trade-remedy review result, not a political easing. Logged, does not count yet.
- Trump signs a proclamation changing the list of Canadian goods under the 50% Section 338 tariffs, effective 30 October: 22 tariff lines out (thin hardwood plywood, some paper and plastic packaging, machinery), 100 in (carpets, valves, waste, cocoa powder, thin MDF and other goods)
Mixed Section 338 scope change: removals (easing act) and additions (new restriction) in one proclamation, signed 2026-10-23, effective 2026-10-30. Before start date A (neither C-39 nor the Mega Deduction bill has Royal Assent), so it falls in no counting window yet; logged for the A-120 window if A arrives by about 2027-02-20.