Pre-registered prediction P21Open
"The build-out laws outlast the campaign"
This test belongs to the thought experiment about US intent: it states in advance what each reading expects, so the result can count for or against any of them, including the foresight reading.
- Registered
- Window
- 4 October 2026 to 15 October 2029
From registration to the fixed-date federal election of 15 October 2029 - Status
- Open: The window has not closed; nothing has settled it yet.
What counts
The claim: neither of the two parties that can form a government, the Liberals and the Conservatives, pledges before the 2029 federal election to repeal the permitting core of the Building Canada Act (Bill C-5) or Bill C-39.
What would make it fail: a platform plank, or a statement by either party's leader, pledging to repeal either law or its permitting powers (designation of projects of national interest, the single decision, the one-year decision clock). Promises to amend, speed up or replace them with another fast-track regime don't count; neither do changes to the Productivity Mega Deduction, which is a tax measure.
Why it matters: if the laws survive a change of government, the faster build-out does too. Public support for building is high today (about three in four backed C-5 when it passed), and the Conservatives' 2025 platform proposed the same machinery, only faster.
For context, tracked but not scored: the NDP, the Bloc Québécois and the Greens voted against C-5 and oppose C-39; together they poll far below either major party. If one of them rose into contention on a repeal platform, we would record it.
What each reading expects
| Reading | Expects | If seen |
|---|---|---|
| O0 No meaningful speed-up Outcome | A Liberal or Conservative pledge to repeal the permitting core of C-5 or C-39 before 2029 | Raises its odds |
| O1 Faster, but the extra output goes mostly elsewhere Outcome | Same pledge: the faster build-out would be reversible after 2029 | Lowers its odds |
| O2 Faster, and more volume reaches the US (this level or higher) Outcome | Same pledge: the faster build-out would be reversible after 2029 | Lowers its odds |
| I0b Plain self-interest; Canada's response not considered Tested hypothesis (intent) | No different prediction from the other readings on this test. | No change |
| I2 Foreseen and wanted (this level or higher) Tested hypothesis (intent) | No different prediction from the other readings on this test. | No change |
Observations
- House of Commons passes Part 2 of Bill C-5, the Building Canada Act, at third reading by 306 votes to 31, with Conservatives voting in favour
Baseline: Liberal and Conservative MPs voted for the Building Canada Act part of C-5 (306 to 31); the votes against came from the Bloc, NDP and Greens.