Pre-registered prediction P17Open
"Shared skies hold"
- Registered
- Window
- 28 September 2026 to 31 December 2026
Globe 2026-01-20: first expected warning would be a US notice ending shared skies - Status
- Open: The window has not closed; nothing has settled it yet.
Articles that cite this record
What counts
Prediction: NO formal US notice ending NORAD or the Canada-US 'shared skies' air-defence arrangement by 2026-12-31. Our probability: about 99% (range 96.2% to 99.7%), from our model: among the countries the Trump administration has put under sustained pressure since late 2024 that had a security arrangement with the US, it formally cut one once (Ukraine, March 2025, for a week); we halve that rate for NORAD because it defends the US itself. Counts as fired (prediction failed): a US government notice, order or official statement at cabinet/combatant-command level or above that NORAD co-operation or shared airspace defence with Canada ends or is suspended. Does not count: talk that NORAD 'would have to be altered', procurement disputes, or reorganisation that keeps joint defence. Source: primary document or two independent reports.
Observations
- Hoekstra, on The Hub's Alberta Edge podcast: if Canada says no on security, the US will go in a different direction; without Canada, that would be harder and costlier
Baseline: the ambassador said the US would 'go in a different direction' if Canada said no on security; a hint, not a notice ending NORAD, so it does not count.
- Hoekstra at Luke AFB: 'NORAD would have to be altered' if Canada drops the F-35; asked about the US as a threat: 'That's crazy. We're not a threat.'
Baseline: the ambassador said NORAD 'would have to be altered' if Canada drops the F-35; talk of altering NORAD does not count under this test.
- Pentagon 'pausing' the Permanent Joint Board on Defence, the Canada-US advisory body created in 1940
The Pentagon paused its part in the Permanent Joint Board on Defence, an advisory body; NORAD itself was not touched, so this does not count.
Corrections
Update: the probability now comes from our model, with rules written and frozen before publication. Of ten countries under sustained pressure from the Trump administration since late 2024 that had a standing security arrangement with the US (Canada, Ukraine, Greenland/Denmark, Panama, Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, South Africa, India, Nigeria), the US formally cut or suspended one: military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, confirmed on the record by the national security adviser and the CIA director on 5 March 2025. Cuts to all aid that do not name security co-operation (Colombia, South Africa) do not count. Each country was searched case by case, with saved government and news sources. The model halves the rate for NORAD because it defends US territory itself.
- What counts
- was
Prediction: NO formal US notice ending NORAD or the Canada-US 'shared skies' air-defence arrangement by 2026-12-31. Our probability ~97%. Counts as fired (prediction failed): a US government notice, order or official statement at cabinet/combatant-command level or above that NORAD co-operation or shared airspace defence with Canada ends or is suspended. Does not count: talk that NORAD 'would have to be altered', procurement disputes, or reorganisation that keeps joint defence. Source: primary document or two independent reports.nowPrediction: NO formal US notice ending NORAD or the Canada-US 'shared skies' air-defence arrangement by 2026-12-31. Our probability: about 99% (range 96.2% to 99.7%), from our model: among the countries the Trump administration has put under sustained pressure since late 2024 that had a security arrangement with the US, it formally cut one once (Ukraine, March 2025, for a week); we halve that rate for NORAD because it defends the US itself. Counts as fired (prediction failed): a US government notice, order or official statement at cabinet/combatant-command level or above that NORAD co-operation or shared airspace defence with Canada ends or is suspended. Does not count: talk that NORAD 'would have to be altered', procurement disputes, or reorganisation that keeps joint defence. Source: primary document or two independent reports. - What counts fr
- was
Prédiction : AUCUN avis officiel américain ne met fin au NORAD ou à l'arrangement de défense aérienne canado-américain du « ciel commun » d'ici le 31 décembre 2026. Notre probabilité : environ 97 %. Compte comme déclenchée (prédiction ratée) : un avis, un ordre ou une déclaration officielle du gouvernement américain, au niveau du cabinet ou d'un commandement de combat ou plus haut, annonçant que la coopération au sein du NORAD ou la défense commune de l'espace aérien avec le Canada prend fin ou est suspendue. Ne compte pas : des propos selon lesquels le NORAD « devrait être modifié », des différends sur des acquisitions, ou une réorganisation qui maintient la défense conjointe. Source : document primaire ou deux comptes rendus indépendants.nowPrédiction : AUCUN avis officiel américain ne met fin au NORAD ou à l'arrangement de défense aérienne canado-américain du « ciel commun » d'ici le 31 décembre 2026. Notre probabilité : environ 99 % (fourchette de 96,2 % à 99,7 %), selon notre modèle : parmi les pays que l'administration Trump soumet à des pressions soutenues depuis la fin de 2024 et qui avaient un arrangement de sécurité avec les États-Unis, elle en a officiellement coupé un une fois (l'Ukraine, en mars 2025, pendant une semaine); nous réduisons ce taux de moitié pour le NORAD, parce qu'il défend les États-Unis eux-mêmes. Compte comme déclenchée (prédiction ratée) : un avis, un ordre ou une déclaration officielle du gouvernement américain, au niveau du cabinet ou d'un commandement de combat ou plus haut, annonçant que la coopération au sein du NORAD ou la défense commune de l'espace aérien avec le Canada prend fin ou est suspendue. Ne compte pas : des propos selon lesquels le NORAD « devrait être modifié », des différends sur des acquisitions, ou une réorganisation qui maintient la défense conjointe. Source : document primaire ou deux comptes rendus indépendants.