Pre-registered prediction P18Open

"Normal diplomatic posture"

Registered

28 September 2026

Window

28 September 2026 to 30 June 2027
One of the warning indicators for the military-risk estimates

Status

Open: The window has not closed; nothing has settled it yet.

What counts

Prediction: the US State Department travel advisory for Canada stays at Level 1 and there is NO ordered or authorized departure of US diplomatic staff from Canada through 2027-06-30. Our probability: about 92% (range 85% to 97%), from our model: how often the State Department raised a US treaty ally from Level 1, or ordered staff out, since 2018, plus the chance of a worldwide raise like the 2020 pandemic's, counted from 2009. Canada is treated as an average ally. Counts as fired (prediction failed): any advisory raised to Level 2 or higher for Canada as a whole, or any ordered/authorized departure. Regional advisories for natural disasters do not count.

Observations

Nothing logged yet.

Corrections

• 6 October 2026New evidenceUpdate

  Update: the probability now comes from our model, with rules written and frozen before publication. In the State Department's monthly travel-advisory feed from 2018 to September 2026, US treaty allies at Level 1 were raised for their own reasons four times in about 146 ally-years (Netherlands 2018, Albania 2019, Sweden 2023, Thailand 2025), outside the pandemic period; the one worldwide raise (2020) is counted over the period since 2009, when the first global health emergency raised no allied advisory. Canada is treated as an average ally, with a range for doing better or worse.

  What counts

  wasPrediction: the US State Department travel advisory for Canada stays at Level 1 and there is NO ordered or authorized departure of US diplomatic staff from Canada through 2027-06-30. Our probability ~95%. Counts as fired (prediction failed): any advisory raised to Level 2 or higher for Canada as a whole, or any ordered/authorized departure. Regional advisories for natural disasters do not count. nowPrediction: the US State Department travel advisory for Canada stays at Level 1 and there is NO ordered or authorized departure of US diplomatic staff from Canada through 2027-06-30. Our probability: about 92% (range 85% to 97%), from our model: how often the State Department raised a US treaty ally from Level 1, or ordered staff out, since 2018, plus the chance of a worldwide raise like the 2020 pandemic's, counted from 2009. Canada is treated as an average ally. Counts as fired (prediction failed): any advisory raised to Level 2 or higher for Canada as a whole, or any ordered/authorized departure. Regional advisories for natural disasters do not count.

  What counts fr

  wasPrédiction : le conseil aux voyageurs du département d'État américain pour le Canada reste au niveau 1, et AUCUN départ ordonné ou autorisé du personnel diplomatique américain du Canada n'a lieu jusqu'au 30 juin 2027. Notre probabilité : environ 95 %. Compte comme déclenchée (prédiction ratée) : tout conseil relevé au niveau 2 ou plus pour l'ensemble du Canada, ou tout départ ordonné ou autorisé. Les conseils régionaux liés à des catastrophes naturelles ne comptent pas. nowPrédiction : le conseil aux voyageurs du département d'État américain pour le Canada reste au niveau 1, et AUCUN départ ordonné ou autorisé du personnel diplomatique américain du Canada n'a lieu jusqu'au 30 juin 2027. Notre probabilité : environ 92 % (fourchette de 85 % à 97 %), selon notre modèle : la fréquence à laquelle le département d'État a relevé le niveau d'un allié des États-Unis au-delà du niveau 1, ou ordonné le départ de personnel, depuis 2018, plus le risque d'un relèvement mondial comme celui de la pandémie de 2020, compté depuis 2009. Le Canada y est traité comme un allié moyen. Compte comme déclenchée (prédiction ratée) : tout conseil relevé au niveau 2 ou plus pour l'ensemble du Canada, ou tout départ ordonné ou autorisé. Les conseils régionaux liés à des catastrophes naturelles ne comptent pas.