Pre-registered prediction P20Open

"NATO-invasion bill stays parked"

Registered

28 September 2026

Window

28 September 2026 to 3 January 2027
H.R. 7016, No Funds for NATO Invasion Act, introduced 2026-01-12

Status

Open: The window has not closed; nothing has settled it yet.

What counts

Prediction: H.R. 7016 (No Funds for NATO Invasion Act) receives NO committee markup and no floor vote before the end of the 119th Congress (2027-01-03). Our probability: about 96% (range 92% to 98%), from our model: bills like it (minority sponsor, Foreign Affairs or Armed Services, some majority support, untouched by late September of the second year) almost never moved before the Congress ended, and its text is in neither chamber's version of the FY2027 defence bill, so a place in the final defence law is unlikely. Counts as fired (prediction failed): a committee markup, a floor vote, or its text enacted as part of another bill (e.g. an NDAA amendment barring funds to invade a NATO member). Source: congress.gov or govinfo bill status.

Observations

• 4 June 2026Logged only

  House Armed Services Committee rejects, 27-29, Keating's amendment barring defence funds for an invasion of a NATO member

  Not a markup of H.R. 7016 itself: the Armed Services Committee voted down its text as an amendment to the FY2027 defence bill (27-29), so the text is in neither chamber's version of that bill.

• 19 September 2026Logged only

  H.R. 7016 'No Funds for NATO Invasion Act' introduced (Keating, Bacon, Hoyer, Boyle +23): bars funds and any officer from executing an invasion of a NATO member

  Baseline: H.R. 7016 was introduced on 12 January 2026 and referred to the Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committees; no markup or floor vote at the 19 September 2026 status check.

Corrections

• 6 October 2026New evidenceUpdate

  Update: the probability now comes from our model, with rules written and frozen before publication. Of 314 comparable House bills in the 116th to 118th Congresses (minority sponsor, Foreign Affairs or Armed Services, at least one majority cosponsor, no action by 28 September of the second session), 2 got a markup before the Congress ended (govinfo bill status). The text is not in the House-passed H.R. 8800 or the Senate committee's S. 4784: the House Armed Services Committee rejected it as an amendment, 27-29, on 4 June 2026 (Recorded Vote No. 37). The model puts 3% on the text entering law through the final defence bill, more if a compromise text includes it.

  What counts

  wasPrediction: H.R. 7016 (No Funds for NATO Invasion Act) receives NO committee markup and no floor vote before the end of the 119th Congress (2027-01-03). Our probability ~87% (range 85-90%). Counts as fired (prediction failed): a committee markup, a floor vote, or its text enacted as part of another bill (e.g. an NDAA amendment barring funds to invade a NATO member). Source: congress.gov or govinfo bill status. nowPrediction: H.R. 7016 (No Funds for NATO Invasion Act) receives NO committee markup and no floor vote before the end of the 119th Congress (2027-01-03). Our probability: about 96% (range 92% to 98%), from our model: bills like it (minority sponsor, Foreign Affairs or Armed Services, some majority support, untouched by late September of the second year) almost never moved before the Congress ended, and its text is in neither chamber's version of the FY2027 defence bill, so a place in the final defence law is unlikely. Counts as fired (prediction failed): a committee markup, a floor vote, or its text enacted as part of another bill (e.g. an NDAA amendment barring funds to invade a NATO member). Source: congress.gov or govinfo bill status.

  What counts fr

  wasPrédiction : le H.R. 7016 (No Funds for NATO Invasion Act) ne fait l'objet d'AUCUNE étude article par article en comité ni d'aucun vote en Chambre avant la fin du 119e Congrès (3 janvier 2027). Notre probabilité : environ 87 % (fourchette de 85 à 90 %). Compte comme déclenchée (prédiction ratée) : une étude article par article en comité, un vote en Chambre, ou l'adoption de son texte dans un autre projet de loi (p. ex. un amendement à la NDAA interdisant de financer l'invasion d'un membre de l'OTAN). Source : l'état du projet de loi sur congress.gov ou govinfo. nowPrédiction : le H.R. 7016 (No Funds for NATO Invasion Act) ne fait l'objet d'AUCUNE étude article par article en comité ni d'aucun vote en Chambre avant la fin du 119e Congrès (3 janvier 2027). Notre probabilité : environ 96 % (fourchette de 92 % à 98 %), selon notre modèle : les projets de loi semblables (parrain de la minorité, Affaires étrangères ou Forces armées, un appui dans la majorité, intouchés à la fin septembre de la deuxième année) n'ont presque jamais avancé avant la fin du Congrès, et son texte ne figure dans la version d'aucune des deux chambres du projet de loi de défense de l'exercice 2027, si bien qu'une place dans la loi de défense finale est peu probable. Compte comme déclenchée (prédiction ratée) : une étude article par article en comité, un vote en Chambre, ou l'adoption de son texte dans un autre projet de loi (p. ex. un amendement à la NDAA interdisant de financer l'invasion d'un membre de l'OTAN). Source : l'état du projet de loi sur congress.gov ou govinfo.