Tested hypothesis (intent)I0b

Plain self-interest; Canada's response not considered

Part of a thought experiment. One of the readings tested in a deliberately contrarian question: suppose Washington foresaw and wanted this; what would we expect to see, and do we see it? Not the author’s belief. How the test works.

Plain US self-interest. Canada's build-out response wasn't considered; it is a side effect.

Tests that bear on it

• P1: "No deal before the law" (a test of the foresight thought experiment) Open

  Expects: Pressure simply continues, with raw goods spared: no evidence either way, at most a slight tilt toward this reading · if seen, no change

• P3: No plan: impulse or US domestic politics Open

  Expects: Pressure continues past A with no break at A and the raw-resource exemptions intact · if seen, counts for this reading

• P5: Pressure returns if the build-out stalls Open

  Expects: No change attributable to the stall (weak evidence, at most a slight tilt toward this reading) · if seen, counts for this reading

• P6: Tariff-action test around the new laws Open

  Expects: (a) Restrictive actions and (c) provocations keep tracking Canadian defiance or US domestic triggers, no break at A · if seen, counts for this reading

• P7: Churchill Falls definitive agreements by 2027-03-31 Open

  Expects: No different prediction from the other readings on this test. · if seen, no change

• P8: BC Bill 15 switched on within 12 months of the 2026-10-24 election Open

  Expects: No different prediction from the other readings on this test. · if seen, no change

• P9: Quebec fast-track test, strict and loose, by 2027-10-05 Open

  Expects: No different prediction on Washington's intent · if seen, no change

• P10: Fragmentation watch Open

  Expects: No specific prediction · if seen, no change

• P11: Alberta referendum, 2026-10-19 Open

  Expects: The leverage reading does not separate plain self-interest from the foresight reading · if seen, no change

• P12: October platforms: "soft before, hard after" Open

  Expects: No different prediction from the other readings on this test. · if seen, no change

• P13: Next Conservative federal platform Open

  Expects: No different prediction from the other readings on this test. · if seen, no change

• P14: "Was it foreseen?" (foresight test 1) Scored

  Expects: Nothing found (weak evidence) · if seen, counts for this reading

• P15: "Asymmetry" (foresight test 2) Open

  Expects: Consistent asymmetry with no extra cost fits plain self-interest and the foresight reading both, so it counts for neither · if seen, no change

• P16: "Rerouting constraint" (foresight test 3) Open

  Expects: Constraint on rerouting capacity appears after it becomes visible, southbound build-out left alone · if seen, counts for this reading

• P21: "The build-out laws outlast the campaign" Open

  Expects: No different prediction from the other readings on this test. · if seen, no change

Other readings on this scale: I0a · I1 · I2 · I3. All of them, side by side, on the odds page.