Tested hypothesis (intent)I0a

Accident

Part of a thought experiment. One of the readings tested in a deliberately contrarian question: suppose Washington foresaw and wanted this; what would we expect to see, and do we see it? Not the author’s belief. How the test works.

Accident: impulse, grudges and domestic politics drive US policy; the pattern lines up by coincidence.

Tests that bear on it

• P1: "No deal before the law" (a test of the foresight thought experiment) Open

  Expects: Timing unrelated to the laws (see the "No plan" test) · if seen, counts for this reading

• P3: No plan: impulse or US domestic politics Open

  Expects: Deal comes or collapses at a moment unrelated to the lock-in milestones · if seen, counts for this reading

Other readings on this scale: I0b · I1 · I2 · I3. All of them, side by side, on the odds page.