EventAction
LNG Canada's partners take the final investment decision on Phase 2, to double the Kitimat plant's capacity to 28 million tonnes a year
LNG Canada announced that its five joint-venture partners, Shell (40%), PETRONAS (25%), PetroChina (15%), Mitsubishi Corporation (15%) and KOGAS (5%), had taken the final investment decision on the Phase 2 expansion of its plant at Kitimat, BC. LNG Canada's release is dated 28 September 2026; the Prime Minister's Office, Shell and TC Energy announced the decision on 29 September. Phase 2 adds two LNG processing units (trains), raising the plant's capacity from 14 to 28 million tonnes a year; Shell said commercial operations are expected to begin in the early 2030s. The Prime Minister's Office and the federal Major Projects Office put the investment at $33 billion, and the Prime Minister's Office, in the title of its release, called it the second-largest single private investment in Canadian history; LNG Canada described it as one of the largest private-sector investments in Canada. The decision lets MNT Investments LP, representing the Gitga'at, Gitxaała, Haisla, Kitselas and Kitsumkalum Nations, exercise an option to invest up to C$1 billion in a special-purpose entity that will buy Phase 2's new LNG storage tank; the Prime Minister's Office and the Major Projects Office describe this as a majority ownership stake in the tank but give different sizes for it (225,000 cubic metres in the Prime Minister's Office release, 255,000 on the Major Projects Office page). Each partner remains responsible for taking its own share of the LNG produced (equity lifting); the releases name no third-party buyers. TC Energy said the decision met the conditions of its earlier conditional investment decision on Coastal GasLink Phase 2, which adds compressor stations (five, according to LNG Canada) to nearly double the pipeline's current capacity of about 2.1 billion cubic feet a day; the Prime Minister's Office says the capacity will double. TC Energy expects construction to start in early 2027 and service to begin in the early 2030s.
- Date
- Kind
- Investment decision
- Where
- British Columbia
- Evidence
- Action: Something was done: a law switched on, a tariff imposed, money committed. How evidence is weighed
- Who
- LNG Canada (joint venture) (acted); Shell (acted); Petronas (acted); PetroChina (acted); Mitsubishi (acted); KOGAS (acted); TC Energy (subject)
Articles that cite this record
Sources
- Major Projects Office (Government of Canada), “LNG Canada Phase 2 - Major Projects Office” (external site). source record
- Prime Minister of Canada, “Prime Minister Carney welcomes LNG Canada Phase 2, the second-largest single private investment in Canadian history” (external site), . source record
- LNG Canada (via Cision Newswire), “LNG Canada Announces Phase 2 Final Investment Decision” (external site), . source record
- Shell, “Shell takes final investment decision to double LNG Canada capacity” (external site), . source record
- TC Energy (via GlobeNewswire), “Coastal GasLink Phase 2 to proceed following LNG Canada Final Investment Decision” (external site), . source record
Projects
Claims that rest on this event
- On the current course, intended or not, Canada's resource build-out pays for both countries; the trade war doesn't. The US gets more supply, and the new southbound capacity arrives first, from 2027: it gets more supply either way; counted as income, the build-out pays it a little, but the trade war costs it more, so it comes out ahead in 2034 only if nearly all of today's tariff damage is gone. Canada gets a bigger resource base and the capacity to sell elsewhere, which shifts bargaining power toward it. By 2034, Canada comes out ahead unless most of today's tariffs are still in place; but the decade as a whole leaves it behind, and the longer the tariffs last, the less of it comes back.
LNG Canada Phase 2's final investment decision doubles the Kitimat plant: the largest single gain in Canada's build-out.
- If everything planned is built, LNG export capacity roughly triples (from 14 to about 45 million tonnes a year), and LNG would carry about 40% of Canada's gas exports overseas. LNG Canada's Phase 2 took its final investment decision on 29 September 2026: two more trains, doubling the plant from 14 to 28 million tonnes a year, about C$33 billion, with operations expected in the early 2030s. Gas sent to the US by pipeline may dip from 8.6 to 8.0 billion cubic feet a day by 2027, but the journal's model still expects more gas to reach the US by the mid-2030s, because it assumes most gas for new LNG comes from new production.
The Phase 2 investment decision doubles the Kitimat plant to 28 million tonnes a year, part of the overseas LNG growth the claim counts.
How it bears on the outcome
| Explanation | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| O0 No meaningful speed-up | Against moderate | A final investment decision doubling a major LNG export plant, with its pipeline expansion, would be surprising if the build-out were not speeding up; it was long planned, so it is not strong. |
| O1 Faster, but the extra output goes mostly elsewhere | Fits moderate | The new capacity ships from the West Coast and is lifted by Shell and Asian partners, so the extra output is expected to go mostly to non-US buyers, as O1 predicts. |
| O2 Faster, and more volume reaches the US (this level or higher) | Against weak | One of the largest new resource projects adds no volume to the US, which is mildly awkward for O2, though other projects could still carry US volume. |
| O3 Locked-in preferential terms for the US | Against weak | No US government stake, guarantee or purchase terms appear in the decision; not observed. |
Logged against predictions
- P16: "Rerouting constraint" (foresight test 3) (logged 29 September 2026, logged only)
- P4: Capital follows the law (logged 29 September 2026, logged only)