OutcomeO1

Faster, but the extra output goes mostly elsewhere

The build-out speeds up, but the extra output goes mostly to other buyers; the volume going to the US stays flat, falls, or grows by less than about US$4 billion a year (the bar for O2).

In plain words: Canada builds faster, but the extra output mostly goes to other buyers; what reaches the US stays flat or falls.

Current odds

No estimate on its own.

Tests that bear on it

• P21: "The build-out laws outlast the campaign" Open

  Expects: Same pledge: the faster build-out would be reversible after 2029 · if seen, lowers these odds

Other readings on this scale: O0 · O2 · O3. All of them on the odds page.