ClaimOutcome
On the current course, intended or not, Canada's resource build-out pays for both countries; the trade war doesn't. The US gets more supply, and the new southbound capacity arrives first, from 2027: it gets more supply either way; counted as income, the build-out pays it a little, but the trade war costs it more, so it comes out ahead in 2034 only if nearly all of today's tariff damage is gone. Canada gets a bigger resource base and the capacity to sell elsewhere, which shifts bargaining power toward it. By 2034, Canada comes out ahead unless most of today's tariffs are still in place; but the decade as a whole leaves it behind, and the longer the tariffs last, the less of it comes back.
Replaces: On the current course, intended or not, both countries win from Canada's resource …
Articles that cite this record
The evidence it rests on
Supports (5)
- Enbridge takes its final investment decision on Mainline Optimization Phase 1 (+150,000 b/d) and a Flanagan South expansion (+100,000 b/d), US$1.4B
Firm southbound oil capacity in service 2027: the US side of the win.
Documented by: Enbridge, “Enbridge Adding Canadian Egress to Key U.S. Refining Markets, Enhancing North American Energy Security” (external site), . and 2 more
- Canada Energy Regulator: Trans Mountain carried an average of 761,000 barrels a day in 2025, up 37% from 2024
The Canada Energy Regulator reports that Trans Mountain carried 761,000 barrels a day in 2025, up 37%, and that exports from its Westridge terminal surged, particularly heavy crude bound for Asia and the US West Coast: Canada's capacity to sell elsewhere is real in volume.
Documented by: Canada Energy Regulator, “Market Snapshot: Oil pipeline throughputs remained high in 2025” (external site), .
- Uniper signs a binding agreement to buy 2 Mtpa of LNG from Ksi Lisims for up to 20 years, with first deliveries expected in 2032
A binding 20-year LNG purchase by a European buyer: evidence of Canada's growing capacity to sell outside the US.
Documented by: Major Projects Office, “Ksi Lisims LNG - Major Projects Office” (external site). and 3 more
- LNG Canada's partners take the final investment decision on Phase 2, to double the Kitimat plant's capacity to 28 million tonnes a year
LNG Canada Phase 2's final investment decision doubles the Kitimat plant: the largest single gain in Canada's build-out.
Documented by: Major Projects Office (Government of Canada), “LNG Canada Phase 2 - Major Projects Office” (external site). and 4 more
- IEEPA tariffs stop being collected and a temporary 10% global surcharge under Section 122 takes effect
The IEEPA tariffs stopped being collected in February 2026: US tariffs do end, at least in part.
Documented by: GHY International, “U.S. 10% Section 122 Tariff In Effect Feb. 24; IEEPA Tariffs Cease; De Minimis Suspension Continues” (external site), . and 2 more
Complicates (1)
- Enbridge postpones Mainline Optimization Phase 2 (+250,000 barrels a day, Alberta to North Dakota) because producers won't commit
Producers withheld Phase 2: the southbound win is smaller and conditional.
Documented by: Global News, “Canada's Enbridge postpones plans for second phase of Mainline oil pipeline expansion” (external site), . and 1 more
Context (4)
- PBO's June 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook treats current US tariffs as permanent and projects growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027
Official forecasters treat today's tariffs as permanent; on that assumption our model has Canada ahead in 2034 in about 15% of runs.
Documented by: Parliamentary Budget Officer, “Economic and Fiscal Outlook – June 2026” (external site), .
- US Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum double from 25% to 50% on 4 June 2025 for all countries except the UK
Steel and aluminum tariffs doubled to 50% in June 2025: the damage side of Canada's ledger.
Documented by: Federal Register (Executive Office of the President), “Proclamation 10947: Adjusting Imports of Aluminum and Steel Into the United States” (external site), . and 1 more
- Canadian counter-tariffs take effect on C$27.6B of US goods (about US$20B), matching the US Section 338 tariffs
Canada's own counter-tariffs on C$27.6 billion of US goods: a cost Canadians bear too, counted in the ledger.
Documented by: Department of Finance Canada, “List of products from the United States subject to counter-tariffs effective September 8, 2026” (external site), . and 2 more
- Carney lists the West Coast oil pipeline, renamed Pacific Link, as the first project of national interest under Schedule 1 of the Building Canada Act
Pacific Link is listed, not built: our model counts its gains only in the runs where it gets built.
Documented by: Prime Minister's Office, “Prime Minister Carney lists the West Coast Oil Pipeline, now known as Pacific Link, as a project of national interest” (external site), . and 5 more
Corrections to this claim
Updated after What the US nets, our count of Americans' income from Canada's build-out and the trade war: the US side is now counted.
- Text
- was
On the current course, intended or not, Canada's resource build-out pays for both countries; the trade war doesn't. The US gets more supply, and the new southbound capacity arrives first, from 2027: it gets more supply either way, though what the trade war costs Americans is not counted here. Canada gets a bigger resource base and the capacity to sell elsewhere, which shifts bargaining power toward it. By 2034, Canada comes out ahead unless most of today's tariffs are still in place; but the decade as a whole leaves it behind, and the longer the tariffs last, the less of it comes back.nowOn the current course, intended or not, Canada's resource build-out pays for both countries; the trade war doesn't. The US gets more supply, and the new southbound capacity arrives first, from 2027: it gets more supply either way; counted as income, the build-out pays it a little, but the trade war costs it more, so it comes out ahead in 2034 only if nearly all of today's tariff damage is gone. Canada gets a bigger resource base and the capacity to sell elsewhere, which shifts bargaining power toward it. By 2034, Canada comes out ahead unless most of today's tariffs are still in place; but the decade as a whole leaves it behind, and the longer the tariffs last, the less of it comes back. - Text fr
- was
Sur la trajectoire actuelle, voulue ou non, la vague de construction du Canada dans les ressources profite aux deux pays; la guerre commerciale, non. Les États-Unis obtiennent plus d'approvisionnement, et la nouvelle capacité vers le sud arrive en premier, dès 2027 : ils obtiennent plus d'approvisionnement dans tous les cas, mais ce que la guerre commerciale coûte aux Américains n'est pas compté ici. Le Canada obtient une base de ressources plus large et la capacité de vendre ailleurs, ce qui déplace le rapport de force en sa faveur. D'ici 2034, le Canada s'en sort gagnant, sauf si la plupart des tarifs actuels sont encore en place; mais la décennie, prise dans son ensemble, le laisse perdant, et plus les tarifs durent, moins il en récupère.nowSur la trajectoire actuelle, voulue ou non, la vague de construction du Canada dans les ressources profite aux deux pays; la guerre commerciale, non. Les États-Unis obtiennent plus d'approvisionnement, et la nouvelle capacité vers le sud arrive en premier, dès 2027 : ils obtiennent plus d'approvisionnement dans tous les cas; en revenus, la vague de construction leur rapporte un peu, mais la guerre commerciale leur coûte davantage, si bien qu'ils ne s'en sortent gagnants en 2034 que si presque tous les dommages causés par les tarifs actuels ont disparu. Le Canada obtient une base de ressources plus large et la capacité de vendre ailleurs, ce qui déplace le rapport de force en sa faveur. D'ici 2034, le Canada s'en sort gagnant, sauf si la plupart des tarifs actuels sont encore en place; mais la décennie, prise dans son ensemble, le laisse perdant, et plus les tarifs durent, moins il en récupère.
Claims are weighed by the evidence under them, actions first. Method.