OutcomeO3
Locked-in preferential terms for the US
As the level below (faster, with more volume reaching the US), plus preferential terms for the US that are binding and in force when checked in 2034: a government-to-government supply guarantee, right of first refusal, priority access or export-restriction exemption for Canadian resources, or a US government stake, binding purchase contract or price floor of US$100 million or more in a single project in Canada.
In plain words: As O2, plus preferential terms for the US written down: trade-deal clauses, supply guarantees or US ownership.
- Current odds
- 23% (range 7%–39%), as of . An estimate, not a measurement.
Articles that cite this record
How the odds have moved
| As of | Odds | Reason recorded |
|---|---|---|
| 21 October 2026 | 23% 7%–39% | From our model: O3 needs both the main forecast (O2) and locked-in terms, so the model combines the two. The count of comparable US deals gives about 27% that terms of this kind are in force in 2034. Combined with the main forecast's current probability (85%, from our volume model), that is about 23%. The range, 7% to 39%, is wide because such deals are rare: in nine years only one has met our bar. A stricter bar for what counts as locked in gives about 4%, a broader one about 36%. We use the middle one. correction |
| 9 October 2026 | 22% 7%–37% | From our model: O3 needs both the main forecast (O2) and locked-in terms, so the model combines the two. The count of comparable US deals gives about 27% that terms of this kind are in force in 2034. Combined with the main forecast's current probability (81%, from our volume model), that is about 22%. The range, 7% to 37%, is wide because such deals are rare: in nine years only one has met our bar. A stricter bar for what counts as locked in gives about 4%, a broader one about 34%. We use the middle one. correction |
| 6 October 2026 | 22% 7%–37% | From our model: O3 needs both the main forecast (O2) and locked-in terms, so the model combines the two. The count of comparable US deals gives about 27% that terms of this kind are in force in 2034. Combined with the main forecast's current probability (81%, from our volume model), that is about 22%. The range, 7% to 37%, is wide because such deals are rare: in nine years only one has met our bar. A stricter bar for what counts as locked in gives about 4%, a broader one about 34%. We use the middle one. |
| 6 October 2026 | 22% 7%–37% | From our model: O3 needs both the main forecast (O2) and locked-in terms, so the model combines the two. The count of comparable US deals gives about 27% that terms of this kind are in force in 2034. Combined with the main forecast's current probability (81%, from our volume model), that is about 22%. The range, 7% to 37%, is wide because such deals are rare: in nine years only one has met our bar. A stricter bar for what counts as locked in gives about 4%, a broader one about 34%. We use the middle one. correction |
| 6 October 2026 | 22% 7%–38% | From our model: O3 needs both the main forecast (O2) and locked-in terms, so the model combines the two. The count of comparable US deals gives about 27% that terms of this kind are in force in 2034. Combined with the main forecast's current probability (81%, from our volume model), that is about 22%. The range, 7% to 38%, is wide because such deals are rare: in nine years only one has met our bar. A stricter bar for what counts as locked in gives about 4%, a broader one about 34%. We use the middle one. correction |
| 6 October 2026 | 22% 7%–38% | From our model: O3 needs both the main forecast (O2) and locked-in terms, so the model combines the two. The count of comparable US deals gives about 27% that terms of this kind are in force in 2034. Combined with the main forecast's current probability (about 80%, from our volume model), that is about 22%. The range, 7% to 38%, is wide because such deals are rare: in nine years only one has met our bar. A stricter bar for what counts as locked in gives about 4%, a broader one about 34%. We use the middle one. correction |
| 3 October 2026 | 22% 7%–37% | From our model: O3 needs both the main forecast (O2) and locked-in terms, so the model combines the two. The count of comparable US deals gives about 27% that terms of this kind are in force in 2034. Combined with the main forecast's current probability (about 80%, from our volume model), that is about 22%. The range, 7% to 37%, is wide because such deals are rare: in nine years only one has met our bar. A stricter bar for what counts as locked in gives about 4%, a broader one about 34%. We use the middle one. correction |
| 1 October 2026 | 26% 8%–44% | From our model: we counted deals that lock in terms of this kind between the US and its closest resource partners since 2017, then adjusted for the yearly trade-agreement reviews, Canada's refusal in August and Washington's new practice of taking stakes in projects. About 26%. The range, 8% to 44%, is wide because such deals are rare: in nine years only one has met our bar, so a single deal more or less moves the estimate a lot. Separately, the answer depends on what counts as locked in: a stricter bar gives about 5%, a broader one about 40%. We use the middle one. |
Tests that bear on it
- P13: Next Conservative federal platform Open
Expects: 'Reserve for tariff-free partners' appears in the platform text or costing · if seen, raises these odds
Other readings on this scale: O0 · O1 · O2. All of them on the odds page.