OutcomeO2

Faster, and more volume reaches the US (this level or higher)

The build-out speeds up, and the volume going to the US grows, even if the US share of Canada's exports falls. Checked in 2034 against 2024: the yearly volume of Canadian resources reaching the US, added up at fixed prices so that a price rise never counts as growth, must be more than about US$4 billion a year above 2024, about 3% of that year's total, so that ordinary year-to-year swings don't count. Electricity is compared at normal water levels in both years.

In plain words: Canada builds faster and more volume reaches the US, even if the US share of Canada’s exports falls. Canada also gains routes to other buyers.

Current odds: 85%, as of 21 October 2026. An estimate, not a measurement.
Note: “Or higher”: this row includes the levels above it.

Articles that cite this record

The forecast

How the odds have moved

Each point is one recorded estimate, in order.

As of	Odds	Reason recorded
21 October 2026	85%	From our model: counting oil, gas, power, uranium, potash and metals, and weighing three possible aluminum settlements, the volume model gives 85% that the yearly value of Canadian resources reaching the US, at fixed prices, is more than about US$4 billion above 2024, with a median of US$9.1 billion a year more: about 89% if Canada gets a full aluminum exemption, about 76% if the 50% aluminum tariff lasts. Each project counts at the stage recorded for it. The odds that an approved or postponed project gets built come from our count of past Canadian resource and energy projects (how many of those at that stage since 2014 were in service within eight years), with that count's uncertainty carried into every run. Pacific Link, the proposed oil pipeline to the BC coast, listed as a project of national interest, gets the approved odds, and more oil shipped from the coast means less growth going south. Weak points: the odds for the other stages, and the aluminum settlement, are our judgment. Less than that reaching the US (the two lower rungs together): about 15%. correction
9 October 2026	81%	From our model: counting oil, gas, power, uranium, potash and metals, and weighing three possible aluminum settlements, the volume model gives 81% that the yearly value of Canadian resources reaching the US, at fixed prices, is more than about US$4 billion above 2024, with a median of US$8.6 billion a year more: about 85% if Canada gets a full aluminum exemption, about 71% if the 50% aluminum tariff lasts. Metal projects count at the stage recorded for each, including the federal approval of the Crawford nickel project. The listing of Pacific Link, the proposed oil pipeline to the BC coast, as a project of national interest raises the model's odds that it gets built, and more oil shipped from the coast means less growth going south. Weak points: the odds that each project gets built, and the aluminum settlement, are our judgment. Less than that reaching the US (the two lower rungs together): about 19%. correction
6 October 2026	81%	From our model: counting oil, gas, power, uranium, potash and metals, and weighing three possible aluminum settlements, the volume model gives 81% that the yearly value of Canadian resources reaching the US, at fixed prices, is more than about US$4 billion above 2024, with a median of US$8.7 billion a year more: about 85% if Canada gets a full aluminum exemption, about 71% if the 50% aluminum tariff lasts. Metal projects count at the stage recorded for each, including the federal approval of the Crawford nickel project. The listing of Pacific Link, the proposed oil pipeline to the BC coast, as a project of national interest raises the model's odds that it gets built, and more oil shipped from the coast means less growth going south. Weak points: the odds that each project gets built, and the aluminum settlement, are our judgment. Less than that reaching the US (the two lower rungs together): about 19%. correction
6 October 2026	81%	From our model: counting oil, gas, power, uranium, potash and metals, and weighing three possible aluminum settlements, the volume model gives 81% that the yearly value of Canadian resources reaching the US, at fixed prices, is more than about US$4 billion above 2024, with a median of US$8.7 billion a year more: about 85% if Canada gets a full aluminum exemption, about 70% if the 50% aluminum tariff lasts. Metal projects count at the stage recorded for each, including the federal approval of the Crawford nickel project. The listing of Pacific Link, the proposed oil pipeline to the BC coast, as a project of national interest raises the model's odds that it gets built, and more oil shipped from the coast means less growth going south. Weak points: the odds that each project gets built, and the aluminum settlement, are our judgment. Less than that reaching the US (the two lower rungs together): about 19%. correction
6 October 2026	81%	From our model: counting oil, gas, power, uranium, potash and metals, and weighing three possible aluminum settlements, the volume model gives 81% that the yearly value of Canadian resources reaching the US, at fixed prices, is more than about US$4 billion above 2024, with a median of US$8.7 billion a year more: about 85% if Canada gets a full aluminum exemption, about 70% if the 50% aluminum tariff lasts. Metal projects count at the stage recorded for each, including the federal approval of the Crawford nickel project. The listing of Pacific Link, the proposed oil pipeline to the BC coast, as a project of national interest raises the model's odds that it gets built, and more oil shipped from the coast means less growth going south. Weak points: the odds that each project gets built, and the aluminum settlement, are our judgment. Less than that reaching the US (the two lower rungs together): about 19%. correction
2 October 2026	80%	From our model: on 1 October 2026, the federal government listed Pacific Link, the proposed pipeline that would carry about a million barrels of oil a day to the BC coast, as the first project of national interest under the Building Canada Act. Its conditions are still to be set and there is no final investment decision, but the listing raises the model's odds that the pipeline gets built, and more oil shipped from the coast means less growth going south. Counting oil, gas, power, uranium, potash and metals, and weighing three possible aluminum settlements, the model gives about 80% that the yearly value of Canadian resources reaching the US, at fixed prices, is more than about US$4 billion above 2024: about 85% if Canada gets a full aluminum exemption, about 70% if the 50% aluminum tariff lasts. Less than that reaching the US (the two lower rungs together): about 20%. correction
2 October 2026	82%	From our model: O2 counts only if the yearly value of Canadian resources reaching the US, at fixed prices, is more than about US$4 billion above 2024 (about 3% of that year's total), so that ordinary year-to-year swings don't count. Electricity is compared like for like, a normal water year with a normal water year, so it adds about nothing. Counting oil, gas, power, uranium, potash and metals, and weighing three possible aluminum settlements, the model gives about 82%: about 87% if Canada gets a full aluminum exemption, about 73% if the 50% aluminum tariff lasts. Less than that reaching the US (the two lower rungs together): about 18%.

Tests that bear on it

P21: "The build-out laws outlast the campaign" Open
Expects: Same pledge: the faster build-out would be reversible after 2029 · if seen, lowers these odds

Other readings on this scale: O0 · O1 · O3. All of them on the odds page.