EventAction
Enbridge postpones Mainline Optimization Phase 2 (+250,000 barrels a day, Alberta to North Dakota) because producers won't commit
Enbridge said Canadian oil producers had not committed to the 250,000-barrel-a-day second phase. Coverage cited oil-price volatility since the start of the Iran war and the fact that the federal–Alberta energy agreement remains non-binding. Phase 1 (about 150,000 barrels a day) reached a final investment decision in November 2025.
- Date
- Kind
- Investment decision
- Where
- Canada
- Evidence
- Action: Something was done: a law switched on, a tariff imposed, money committed. How evidence is weighed
- Who
- Enbridge (acted)
Articles that cite this record
Sources
- Global News, “Canada's Enbridge postpones plans for second phase of Mainline oil pipeline expansion” (external site), . source record
- East Daley, “Enbridge Shelves Mainline Optimization Phase 2, Doubles Down on Phase 1” (external site), . source record
Projects
Claims that rest on this event
- On the current course, intended or not, both countries win from Canada's resource build-out. The US gets more supply, and the new southbound capacity arrives first, from 2027. Canada gets a bigger resource base and the capacity to sell elsewhere, which shifts bargaining power toward it.
Producers withheld Phase 2: the southbound win is smaller and conditional.
- We put 'faster, and more volume reaches the US' (this outcome or a stronger one) at about 85%, the figure from the journal's volume model, counting oil, gas, power, uranium, potash and metals: about 89% if Canada gets a full aluminum exemption, about 76% if the 50% aluminum tariff lasts. It is checked in 2034 against 2024, and counts only if the yearly value reaching the US, at fixed prices, is more than about US$4 billion above 2024, about 3% of that year's total, so that ordinary year-to-year swings don't count; electricity is compared at normal water levels in both years. The southbound volume is largely committed already: an oil pipeline expansion with a final investment decision and new uranium mines.
Loss of +0.25 mb/d of southbound oil.
- Planned new oil pipeline capacity to the US adds up to about 730,000 barrels a day. Only 150,000 of it (Enbridge Mainline Phase 1, due in 2027) has a final investment decision. Most of the rest is South Bow's Prairie Connector (about 550,000 a day, 465,000 of it under 20-year shipper contracts, decision targeted for mid-2027, service around 2029). Enbridge postponed its Phase 2 (another 250,000 a day) on July 31, 2026, because producers would not commit.
The postponement the claim records.
- The long-term oil contracts are pipeline shipping commitments that Canadian producers pay for whether or not they use the space, not sales contracts with US buyers. Only Enbridge Mainline Phase 1 has a final investment decision; South Bow's Prairie Connector has 20-year shipper commitments but no decision yet, and producers would not commit to Enbridge's Phase 2.
Producers declined to sign shipping commitments.
- The Pathways deal commits Alberta to support oil production growth for the West Coast pipeline but is non-binding, and that already cost private volume: producers cited it when Enbridge Mainline Phase 2 was postponed.
Postponement tied to producer non-commitment.
- Capital is waiting, not flowing. The summit's C$1 trillion target and the banks' and pension funds' pledges are statements with no money moved; producers held back Enbridge's Mainline Phase 2; Ksi Lisims has no final investment decision; and the UAE money hasn't been deployed. The clear exception is LNG Canada Phase 2, which took its final investment decision on 29 September 2026: two more trains, doubling the plant from 14 to 28 million tonnes a year, about C$33 billion, with operations expected in the early 2030s. The registered test 'Capital follows the law' is open.
Withholding shown by an action, not just words.
- What would count against the project's readings. Against 'both sides win': on the US side, capital never committing, or the second wave of output, the part that depends on the new laws, being sold mostly overseas while flows south stall; on Canada's side, most of today's tariff damage (about 57% or more) still in place in 2034. Against the foresight thought experiment: sustained escalation after the laws pass that damages the flow south, resources tariffed as hard as everything else, no resource terms ever appearing in a deal, or documented US support for lawsuits or provincial deals that slow the build-out.
Capital withholding is a live sink risk.
- On the current course, intended or not, Canada's resource build-out pays for both countries; the trade war doesn't. The US gets more supply, and the new southbound capacity arrives first, from 2027: it gets more supply either way; counted as income, the build-out pays it a little, but the trade war costs it more, so it comes out ahead in 2034 only if nearly all of today's tariff damage is gone. Canada gets a bigger resource base and the capacity to sell elsewhere, which shifts bargaining power toward it. By 2034, Canada comes out ahead unless most of today's tariffs are still in place; but the decade as a whole leaves it behind, and the longer the tariffs last, the less of it comes back.
Producers withheld Phase 2: the southbound win is smaller and conditional.
How it bears on the outcome
| Explanation | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| O0 No meaningful speed-up | Fits weak | Producers declining to commit to a 250,000 b/d expansion is consistent with no meaningful speed-up; price volatility is also cited. |
| O1 Faster, but the extra output goes mostly elsewhere | Neutral weak | A postponed US-bound expansion does not show output shifting to other buyers. |
| O2 Faster, and more volume reaches the US (this level or higher) | Against weak | Shelving a US-bound expansion for lack of producer commitments is somewhat surprising if volumes to the US were set to grow. |
| O3 Locked-in preferential terms for the US | Against weak | Shelving a US-bound expansion is somewhat surprising under growing, locked-in US volumes. |
Logged against predictions
- P4: Capital follows the law (logged 31 July 2026, logged only)