ClaimOutcome
Planned new oil pipeline capacity to the US adds up to about 730,000 barrels a day. Only 150,000 of it (Enbridge Mainline Phase 1, due in 2027) has a final investment decision. Most of the rest is South Bow's Prairie Connector (about 550,000 a day, 465,000 of it under 20-year shipper contracts, decision targeted for mid-2027, service around 2029). Enbridge postponed its Phase 2 (another 250,000 a day) on July 31, 2026, because producers would not commit.
The evidence it rests on
Supports (2)
- Enbridge takes its final investment decision on Mainline Optimization Phase 1 (+150,000 b/d) and a Flanagan South expansion (+100,000 b/d), US$1.4B
The 0.15 mb/d that is firm.
Documented by: Enbridge, “Enbridge Adding Canadian Egress to Key U.S. Refining Markets, Enhancing North American Energy Security” (external site), . and 2 more
- Enbridge postpones Mainline Optimization Phase 2 (+250,000 barrels a day, Alberta to North Dakota) because producers won't commit
The postponement the claim records.
Documented by: Global News, “Canada's Enbridge postpones plans for second phase of Mainline oil pipeline expansion” (external site), . and 1 more
Complicates (1)
- Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey, Q2 2026: investment intentions remain at a high level and oil producers raise spending plans
Oil producers told the Bank of Canada they raised capital spending and production plans in 2026; more production could support new pipeline commitments, though oil sands producers remained cautious about expansions.
Documented by: Bank of Canada, “Business Outlook Survey—Second Quarter of 2026” (external site), .
Context (1)
- Trump signs a presidential permit for the Bridger Pipeline expansion, which re-uses Keystone XL assets (about 550,000 barrels a day of Canadian crude initially)
US permit for the large southbound project that has shipper commitments but no final investment decision.
Documented by: BOE Report (Reuters), “Trump signs order authorizing oil pipeline project partially reviving Keystone XL” (external site), . and 4 more
Claims are weighed by the evidence under them, actions first. Method.