ClaimOutcome
The long-term oil contracts are pipeline shipping commitments that Canadian producers pay for whether or not they use the space, not sales contracts with US buyers. Only Enbridge Mainline Phase 1 has a final investment decision; South Bow's Prairie Connector has 20-year shipper commitments but no decision yet, and producers would not commit to Enbridge's Phase 2.
The evidence it rests on
Supports (2)
- Enbridge takes its final investment decision on Mainline Optimization Phase 1 (+150,000 b/d) and a Flanagan South expansion (+100,000 b/d), US$1.4B
Take-or-pay transport contracts, shippers undisclosed.
Documented by: Enbridge, “Enbridge Adding Canadian Egress to Key U.S. Refining Markets, Enhancing North American Energy Security” (external site), . and 2 more
- Enbridge postpones Mainline Optimization Phase 2 (+250,000 barrels a day, Alberta to North Dakota) because producers won't commit
Producers declined to sign shipping commitments.
Documented by: Global News, “Canada's Enbridge postpones plans for second phase of Mainline oil pipeline expansion” (external site), . and 1 more
Complicates (1)
- Peter Navarro on Newsmax: 'one of the things we're trying to do with that Canadian deal is to get the Keystone Pipeline finished'
US official frames the deal as getting a pipeline finished, implying a US demand side; a statement only.
Documented by: Peter Navarro Substack, “Canada, you blew it (Navarro Substack, Newsmax transcript)” (external site), .
Context (1)
- Trans Mountain holds a binding open season (7 April to 2 June 2026) to sign more long-term firm shipping contracts on its pipeline
The coast pipeline also runs on long-term firm shipping contracts (15- and 20-year terms under the proposed settlement) paid by shippers, not sales to buyers.
Documented by: Trans Mountain Corporation (Newsfile), “Trans Mountain Launches Binding Open Season for Firm Service on Existing Pipeline Capacity” (external site), . and 3 more
Claims are weighed by the evidence under them, actions first. Method.