ClaimOutcomeSuperseded
On the current course, intended or not, both countries win from Canada's resource build-out. The US gets more supply, and the new southbound capacity arrives first, from 2027. Canada gets a bigger resource base and the capacity to sell elsewhere, which shifts bargaining power toward it.
This claim has been replaced. The current wording: On the current course, intended or not, Canada's resource build-out pays for both countries; the trade war doesn't. The US gets more supply, and the new …
The evidence it rests on
Supports (3)
- Enbridge takes its final investment decision on Mainline Optimization Phase 1 (+150,000 b/d) and a Flanagan South expansion (+100,000 b/d), US$1.4B
Firm southbound oil capacity in service 2027: the US side of the win.
Documented by: Enbridge, “Enbridge Adding Canadian Egress to Key U.S. Refining Markets, Enhancing North American Energy Security” (external site), . and 2 more
- Canada Energy Regulator: Trans Mountain carried an average of 761,000 barrels a day in 2025, up 37% from 2024
The Canada Energy Regulator reports that Trans Mountain carried 761,000 barrels a day in 2025, up 37%, and that exports from its Westridge terminal surged, particularly heavy crude bound for Asia and the US West Coast: Canada's capacity to sell elsewhere is real in volume.
Documented by: Canada Energy Regulator, “Market Snapshot: Oil pipeline throughputs remained high in 2025” (external site), .
- Uniper signs a binding agreement to buy 2 Mtpa of LNG from Ksi Lisims for up to 20 years, with first deliveries expected in 2032
A binding 20-year LNG purchase by a European buyer: evidence of Canada's growing capacity to sell outside the US.
Documented by: Major Projects Office, “Ksi Lisims LNG - Major Projects Office” (external site). and 3 more
Complicates (2)
- Enbridge postpones Mainline Optimization Phase 2 (+250,000 barrels a day, Alberta to North Dakota) because producers won't commit
Producers withheld Phase 2: the southbound win is smaller and conditional.
Documented by: Global News, “Canada's Enbridge postpones plans for second phase of Mainline oil pipeline expansion” (external site), . and 1 more
- PBO's June 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook treats current US tariffs as permanent and projects growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027
The PBO projects only 1.1% growth in 2026 while treating current US tariffs as permanent: no sign yet of a net gain for Canada.
Documented by: Parliamentary Budget Officer, “Economic and Fiscal Outlook – June 2026” (external site), .
Corrections to this claim
Superseded: as an unconditional claim it overstated Canada's side; What Canada nets, our model of Canada's gains against its costs, finds Canada comes out ahead by 2034 unless most of today's tariffs are still in place, but behind over the decade as a whole. Replaced by the conditional thesis.
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