EventAction
Carney lists the West Coast oil pipeline, renamed Pacific Link, as the first project of national interest under Schedule 1 of the Building Canada Act
In Fort McMurray on 1 October 2026, Prime Minister Carney listed the West Coast oil pipeline, now called Pacific Link, as a project of national interest under Schedule 1 of the Building Canada Act, the first project designated this way (CBC). The pipeline would carry about one million barrels a day roughly 1,250 km from Bruderheim, Alberta, to a deepwater port outside Delta, BC (Global News), on a southern route that the government says protects BC's North Coast and the Great Bear Sea. Canada and Alberta are to hold equal shares, Pembina Pipeline is the private investor and Trans Mountain Corporation leads development; Indigenous communities will be offered at least 10% ownership, financed through loan guarantees. The Major Projects Office is to finalize the conditions by 1 September 2027 (Prime Minister's Office). No final investment decision or in-service date was announced.
- Date
- Kind
- Regulation
- Where
- Canada
- Evidence
- Action: Something was done: a law switched on, a tariff imposed, money committed. How evidence is weighed
- Who
- Mark Carney (acted); Government of Alberta (counterparty)
Articles that cite this record
Sources
- Prime Minister's Office, “Prime Minister Carney lists the West Coast Oil Pipeline, now known as Pacific Link, as a project of national interest” (external site), . source record
- BOE Report (The Canadian Press), “A timeline for Pacific Link, the national interest Alberta-B.C. pipeline plan” (external site), . source record
- Global News, “Pacific Link pipeline to the West Coast officially designated a 'national interest' project” (external site), . source record
- Radio-Canada, “Le projet de pipeline vers la côte Ouest désigné d'intérêt national” (external site), . source record
- CBC News, “West Coast oil pipeline becomes 1st project designated in national interest” (external site), . excerpt only source record
- Canada Gazette, “Order Amending Schedule 1 to the Building Canada Act, P.C. 2026-925 (Canada Gazette, Part I, Vol. 160, No. 41)” (external site), . source record
Laws and agreements
- One Canadian Economy Act (incl. Building Canada Act) (C-5): this event is its “First used” stage
Projects
Claims that rest on this event
- On the current course, intended or not, Canada's resource build-out pays for both countries; the trade war doesn't. The US gets more supply, and the new southbound capacity arrives first, from 2027: it gets more supply either way; counted as income, the build-out pays it a little, but the trade war costs it more, so it comes out ahead in 2034 only if nearly all of today's tariff damage is gone. Canada gets a bigger resource base and the capacity to sell elsewhere, which shifts bargaining power toward it. By 2034, Canada comes out ahead unless most of today's tariffs are still in place; but the decade as a whole leaves it behind, and the longer the tariffs last, the less of it comes back.
Pacific Link is listed, not built: our model counts its gains only in the runs where it gets built.
- Counted as Americans' income, Canada's build-out adds about US$1.5 billion a year by 2034, mostly US owners' profits from Canadian oil, gas and LNG, but the trade war costs more. The US comes out ahead in 2034 only if about a tenth or less of today's tariff damage is still in place (Canada: unless about 57% is), which happens in about 14% of our runs if the tariffs fade the way past US tariffs did. Either way the amount is small for the US, about 0.006% of its economy in 2034. This counts income; the forecast that more Canadian supply reaches the US counts volume.
Pacific Link, listed and built in about 40% of our runs, narrows the heavy-oil discount: a gain for Canada paid by US refiners, which works against the US result.
- A law passed is not a power switched on. BC's narrow Bill 14 was in force in 33 days and is being used for the North Coast Transmission Line, but only 1 of Bill 15's 48 sections was in force in late September 2026, 16 months after it passed, Quebec's Bill 5 lapsed, and Ontario has not yet designated any special economic zone. So the test of whether the build-out is locked in must ask whether powers are brought into force and used.
The Building Canada Act's first project listing (P.C. 2026-925), made 1 October 2026, more than 15 months after the Act came into force on 26 June 2025.
How it bears on the outcome
| Explanation | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| O0 No meaningful speed-up | Against moderate | A formal listing under the Building Canada Act, with public ownership, a private partner and a 2027 conditions deadline, is a concrete step that would be surprising if the build-out were not speeding up; no investment decision yet, so not strong. |
| O1 Faster, but the extra output goes mostly elsewhere | Fits moderate | The PMO release says the pipeline will let Canada export an additional million barrels a day to Asian markets and reduce dependence on the United States: the feature that matches faster build-out with output going elsewhere. |
| O2 Faster, and more volume reaches the US (this level or higher) | Against weak | This project's stated destination is Asia, not the US, so it adds speed without adding US-bound volume; other projects could still raise US volume. |
| O3 Locked-in preferential terms for the US | Against weak | Ownership is Canadian (federal, Alberta, Pembina, Indigenous) and the stated aim is less reliance on the US; no US stake or preferential term is observed. |