ClaimOutcome
Counted as Americans' income, Canada's build-out adds about US$1.5 billion a year by 2034, mostly US owners' profits from Canadian oil, gas and LNG, but the trade war costs more. The US comes out ahead in 2034 only if about a tenth or less of today's tariff damage is still in place (Canada: unless about 57% is), which happens in about 14% of our runs if the tariffs fade the way past US tariffs did. Either way the amount is small for the US, about 0.006% of its economy in 2034. This counts income; the forecast that more Canadian supply reaches the US counts volume.
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The evidence it rests on
Supports (3)
- Provincial liquor boards, including Ontario's LCBO and Quebec's SAQ, pull US alcohol from their shelves
Provincial liquor boards pulled US alcohol from their shelves: part of the boycott cost the trade war puts on Americans' income.
Documented by: CP24, “Ontario removing U.S. alcohol from LCBO as 'first round of retaliation' against Trump's tariffs” (external site), . and 2 more
- StatCan: Canadian-resident return trips from the US fell 25.4% in 2025, and spending on US visits fell C$3.3B to C$18.8B
Canadians' return trips from the US fell 25% in 2025: lost travel spending is another cost of the trade war to Americans.
Documented by: Statistics Canada, “Canadian-resident travel to the United States: A year in review (Economic and Social Reports 36-28-0001)” (external site), . and 1 more
- Canadian counter-tariffs take effect on C$27.6B of US goods (about US$20B), matching the US Section 338 tariffs
Canada's counter-tariffs on its own list of goods weigh on US exporters: a cost on the US side of the ledger.
Documented by: Department of Finance Canada, “List of products from the United States subject to counter-tariffs effective September 8, 2026” (external site), . and 2 more
Context (2)
- IEEPA tariffs stop being collected and a temporary 10% global surcharge under Section 122 takes effect
The IEEPA tariffs stopped being collected in February 2026: tariffs do end in part, which is why the share of damage still in place in 2034 decides the US result.
Documented by: GHY International, “U.S. 10% Section 122 Tariff In Effect Feb. 24; IEEPA Tariffs Cease; De Minimis Suspension Continues” (external site), . and 2 more
- Carney lists the West Coast oil pipeline, renamed Pacific Link, as the first project of national interest under Schedule 1 of the Building Canada Act
Pacific Link, listed and built in about 40% of our runs, narrows the heavy-oil discount: a gain for Canada paid by US refiners, which works against the US result.
Documented by: Prime Minister's Office, “Prime Minister Carney lists the West Coast Oil Pipeline, now known as Pacific Link, as a project of national interest” (external site), . and 5 more
Claims are weighed by the evidence under them, actions first. Method.