EventAction
New England Clean Energy Connect (NECEC, a 1,200 MW high-voltage direct current line from Quebec to New England) enters commercial operation
It carries Hydro-Quebec power to New England under 20-year contracts with Massachusetts utilities (Avangrid). With the Champlain Hudson line to New York, it adds 2,450 MW of new Quebec-US high-voltage direct current capacity in 2026. Flows stopped on January 24-26 during a cold snap, as Quebec limited exports to meet its own demand (US Energy Information Administration).
- Date
- Kind
- Other
- Where
- International
- Evidence
- Action: Something was done: a law switched on, a tariff imposed, money committed. How evidence is weighed
- Who
- Hydro-Québec (acted); Hydro-Québec (counterparty); Avangrid (acted)
Sources
- Hydro-Québec, “Hydro-Québec Form 18-K for 2025” (external site), . source record
- Avangrid, “Avangrid's New England Clean Energy Connect project is complete and energized” (external site), . source record
- US EIA, “New transmission line connecting Hydro-Quebec to ISO-NE begins commercial operations” (external site), . source record
Projects
Claims that rest on this event
- We put 'faster, and more volume reaches the US' (this outcome or a stronger one) at about 85%, the figure from the journal's volume model, counting oil, gas, power, uranium, potash and metals: about 89% if Canada gets a full aluminum exemption, about 76% if the 50% aluminum tariff lasts. It is checked in 2034 against 2024, and counts only if the yearly value reaching the US, at fixed prices, is more than about US$4 billion above 2024, about 3% of that year's total, so that ordinary year-to-year swings don't count; electricity is compared at normal water levels in both years. The southbound volume is largely committed already: an oil pipeline expansion with a final investment decision and new uranium mines.
New southbound electricity volume (pre-tariff contract).
- New electricity export lines run south, not overseas. Two lines, to New England and New York, entered service in 2026 under contracts signed before the tariffs (about 20 TWh a year). But they mostly make up for sales Hydro-Québec is losing elsewhere: comparing a normal water year with a normal water year, Canada's energy regulator puts electricity exports at about 59 TWh in 2024 and about 57 TWh in 2034, so in the journal's model power adds about nothing to what reaches the US, like for like. The model doesn't forecast rain and snow. One caveat: 2024 was actually a drought year (Canada exported only about 36 TWh), so if 2034 is a normal year, the check in 2034 will make electricity look about US$2 billion a year better, for reasons that have nothing to do with building. The Churchill Falls deal adds no new line to the US; its power goes mainly to Quebec.
1,200 MW south to New England, 2018 contract.
- Output is split into projects that don't need the new fast-track laws and projects that depend on them. Only the second group can say anything about the effect of the tariffs, and neither says anything about Washington's intent.
Needs no fast-track law: a 2018 contract.
How it bears on the outcome
| Explanation | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| O0 No meaningful speed-up | Neutral weak | The line was contracted in 2018 and long delayed; its completion says little about a recent speed-up. |
| O1 Faster, but the extra output goes mostly elsewhere | Against weak | New power capacity dedicated to New England is somewhat awkward for US-bound volumes staying flat, though it predates the pressure. |
| O2 Faster, and more volume reaches the US (this level or higher) | Fits weak | 1,200 MW of new Quebec-to-US capacity is consistent with more volume reaching the US, but it was planned long before the pressure. |
| O3 Locked-in preferential terms for the US | Neutral weak | The 20-year contracts are commercial, and Quebec cut flows during a cold snap to meet its own demand, which does not look like a US supply guarantee. |