EventDocument
Statistics Canada: exports to countries other than the US reach a record C$25.6 billion in July 2026, 33.7% of Canada's exports
Statistics Canada reported on 3 September 2026 that exports to countries other than the United States rose 7.4% in July 2026, a third consecutive monthly increase, to a record C$25.6 billion. It said 33.7% of Canadian exports went to countries other than the US that month, which leaves 66.3% for the US. Higher exports to the Netherlands (iron ores, nuclear fuel and crude oil), China (various products) and Germany (copper ores) contributed the most to the increase. Exports to the United States fell 6.6%, the largest percentage decrease since April 2025, on lower exports of crude oil and gold. These figures are on a balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted. On a customs basis, Statistics Canada Table 12-10-0175 puts the US share of total exports (domestic exports plus re-exports) for January to July 2026 at 68.3%.
- Date
- Kind
- Other
- Where
- Canada
- Evidence
- Document: An official document: a bill, a filing, an agreement text. How evidence is weighed
- Who
- Statistics Canada (acted)
Evidence for
- Canada's export diversification so far is more than half gold, and most of the rest is raw materials. Statistics Canada's headline figure, which includes gold, …
- Output is measured as export capacity for now and as actual volumes later. The journal's volume model adds different commodities together at fixed prices, so a …
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Sources
- Statistics Canada, “Statistics Canada Table 12-10-0175: Domestic exports and re-exports by NAPCS section and principal trading partner, monthly” (external site). source record
- Statistics Canada, “The Daily: Canadian international merchandise trade, July 2026” (external site), . source record
Claims that rest on this event
- Canada's export diversification so far is more than half gold, and most of the rest is raw materials. Statistics Canada's headline figure, which includes gold, put the US share of goods exports at 69.8% in August 2026, up from 66.1% in July (balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted). Leaving out gold sent to the UK, our calculation from customs data puts the US share at 79.1% in January-August 2024 and 74.6% in January-August 2026, and it has stayed around 74-75% in most months since April 2025 (monthly range about 72-78%). Of the rise in non-US exports between those two periods, about 52% is gold sent to the UK, and about two-thirds of the rest is raw materials. These are values, not volumes, and they say nothing about Washington's intent.
Headline record non-US share, inflated by gold.
- Output is measured as export capacity for now and as actual volumes later. The journal's volume model adds different commodities together at fixed prices, so a price rise never counts as growth; trade values must be split into price and volume before they are used for the outcome.
Value shares driven by gold and prices.
How it bears on the outcome
| Explanation | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| O0 No meaningful speed-up | Neutral weak | One month of trade values does not show whether the build-out is speeding up. |
| O1 Faster, but the extra output goes mostly elsewhere | Fits moderate | Consistent with this reading: non-US exports hit a record while exports to the US fell 6.6%, partly on crude; one month, and values rather than volumes. |
| O2 Faster, and more volume reaches the US (this level or higher) | Against weak | A fall in exports to the US, including crude, is somewhat awkward for growing US volumes; a single month, affected by prices. |
| O3 Locked-in preferential terms for the US | Against weak | Falling US-bound exports sit awkwardly with locked-in US preferences; one month only. |