ClaimMethod
Output is measured as export capacity for now and as actual volumes later. The journal's volume model adds different commodities together at fixed prices, so a price rise never counts as growth; trade values must be split into price and volume before they are used for the outcome.
The evidence it rests on
Supports (3)
- Statistics Canada: exports to countries other than the US reach a record C$25.6 billion in July 2026, 33.7% of Canada's exports
Value shares driven by gold and prices.
Documented by: Statistics Canada, “Statistics Canada Table 12-10-0175: Domestic exports and re-exports by NAPCS section and principal trading partner, monthly” (external site). and 1 more
- US and Israeli strikes on Iran begin on 28 February 2026; shipping through the Strait of Hormuz largely stops and Brent passes US$100 on 12 March
Brent rose from US$61 to US$118 a barrel in the first quarter of 2026, so trade values after February mix a price shock with changes in volume; this is why values must be split into price and volume.
Documented by: US Energy Information Administration, “Crude oil and petroleum product prices increased sharply in the first quarter of 2026 (Today in Energy)” (external site), . and 1 more
- Canada Energy Regulator: Trans Mountain carried an average of 761,000 barrels a day in 2025, up 37% from 2024
Volume data that do carry the shift.
Documented by: Canada Energy Regulator, “Market Snapshot: Oil pipeline throughputs remained high in 2025” (external site), .
Claims are weighed by the evidence under them, actions first. Method.