EventAction
Trans Mountain holds a binding open season (7 April to 2 June 2026) to sign more long-term firm shipping contracts on its pipeline
Trans Mountain Corporation, the federal Crown corporation that runs the oil pipeline to the BC coast, announced on 25 March 2026 a binding open season, held from 7 April to 2 June 2026, to sign additional firm transportation contracts on existing capacity. It said the process was expected to bring about 80-90% of the system's 890,000 barrels a day under contract. On 7 July it filed a negotiated settlement with shippers with the Canada Energy Regulator that would raise firm capacity from 80% to 90% of nominal capacity and set tolls for 15- and 20-year contracts; the contracts from the open season are conditional on that settlement's approval. Trans Mountain did not name the shippers. Oil Sands Magazine reported record utilization of 94% in the second quarter of 2026, averaging 840,000 barrels a day.
- Date
- Kind
- Contract
- Where
- Canada
- Evidence
- Action: Something was done: a law switched on, a tariff imposed, money committed. How evidence is weighed
- Who
- Trans Mountain Corporation (federal Crown) (acted)
Sources
- Trans Mountain Corporation (Newsfile), “Trans Mountain Launches Binding Open Season for Firm Service on Existing Pipeline Capacity” (external site), . source record
- Trans Mountain, “Trans Mountain Reaches Settlement Agreement with Shippers” (external site), . source record
- Oil Sands Magazine, “Pipeline Capacity Revisited: Timing the next export bottleneck” (external site), . source record
- The Logic, “Canadian oil finds growing market in Asia as Trans Mountain fills up” (external site). paywalled source record
Projects
Claims that rest on this event
- If everything planned is built, Canada's oil export pipeline capacity grows about 1.4 times (from 5.02 to 7.05 million barrels a day, our own sum of the capacities of existing and planned pipelines), and the share that reaches the coast rises from about 12.5% to about 27%. That is an upper bound, because some coast oil goes to US West Coast refineries. The biggest coast addition, the West Coast pipeline (1 million barrels a day), would come around 2032-34.
Trans Mountain sought more long-term firm contracts on its line to the coast, a sign of demand for tidewater space; it does not add pipeline capacity by itself.
- The long-term oil contracts are pipeline shipping commitments that Canadian producers pay for whether or not they use the space, not sales contracts with US buyers. Only Enbridge Mainline Phase 1 has a final investment decision; South Bow's Prairie Connector has 20-year shipper commitments but no decision yet, and producers would not commit to Enbridge's Phase 2.
The coast pipeline also runs on long-term firm shipping contracts (15- and 20-year terms under the proposed settlement) paid by shippers, not sales to buyers.
How it bears on the outcome
| Explanation | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| O0 No meaningful speed-up | Neutral weak | Contracting more of an existing pipeline's capacity is not new build-out; it fits speed-up and no speed-up equally. |
| O1 Faster, but the extra output goes mostly elsewhere | Fits weak | Long-term firm contracts and 94% utilization on the line to the Pacific coast are consistent with more oil heading to tidewater and non-US buyers, though the shippers and destinations are not named. |
| O2 Faster, and more volume reaches the US (this level or higher) | Neutral weak | Destinations are not named and the line also serves US West Coast refiners, so it says little about US volumes. |
| O3 Locked-in preferential terms for the US | Neutral weak | No US preferential terms appear; contracts are with unnamed shippers at regulated tolls. |