EventAction
ARC Resources agrees to sell all its Cedar LNG output (about 1.5 million tonnes a year) to ExxonMobil LNG Asia Pacific at international LNG prices
The sale starts with commercial operations at Cedar LNG, then expected in late 2028, and runs for the term of ARC's liquefaction tolling agreement with Cedar LNG, under which ARC delivers about 200 million cubic feet of gas a day (ARC). ExxonMobil said the deal gives it access to Asian LNG markets: the buyer is a US-parented company, but the cargoes are aimed at Asia. Shell completed its acquisition of ARC on September 2, 2026, so the contract now sits inside Shell.
- Date
- Kind
- Contract
- Where
- International
- Evidence
- Action: Something was done: a law switched on, a tariff imposed, money committed. How evidence is weighed
- Who
- ARC Resources (acted); ExxonMobil LNG Asia Pacific (counterparty)
Sources
- ARC Resources, “ARC Resources Ltd. announces long-term sale and purchase agreement with ExxonMobil” (external site), . source record
- Shell plc, “Shell completes acquisition of ARC Resources” (external site), . source record
Projects
Claims that rest on this event
- If everything planned is built, LNG export capacity roughly triples (from 14 to about 45 million tonnes a year), and LNG would carry about 40% of Canada's gas exports overseas. LNG Canada's Phase 2 took its final investment decision on 29 September 2026: two more trains, doubling the plant from 14 to 28 million tonnes a year, about C$33 billion, with operations expected in the early 2030s. Gas sent to the US by pipeline may dip from 8.6 to 8.0 billion cubic feet a day by 2027, but the journal's model still expects more gas to reach the US by the mid-2030s, because it assumes most gas for new LNG comes from new production.
Cedar volumes sold to an ExxonMobil affiliate that is aiming them at Asian markets.
- Every signed LNG sales contract we found is for markets outside the US: BP (Woodfibre LNG), ExxonMobil's Asia-Pacific unit (Cedar LNG), and Shell, TotalEnergies and Uniper (Ksi Lisims, which has no final investment decision yet). SEFE's and Santos's deals with Ksi Lisims are non-binding.
Binding sale to ExxonMobil LNG Asia Pacific.
How it bears on the outcome
| Explanation | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| O0 No meaningful speed-up | Neutral weak | A sales contract tied to a plant already in development says little about build-out speed. |
| O1 Faster, but the extra output goes mostly elsewhere | Fits weak | The cargoes are aimed at Asia, consistent with new output going to non-US buyers. |
| O2 Faster, and more volume reaches the US (this level or higher) | Neutral weak | Asia-bound cargoes do not show US volumes falling. |
| O3 Locked-in preferential terms for the US | Neutral weak | The buyer is US-parented but takes the LNG to Asia at international prices, and the contract now sits inside Shell; no US preference. |