Event28 February 2026Action

US and Israeli strikes on Iran begin on 28 February 2026; shipping through the Strait of Hormuz largely stops and Brent passes US$100 on 12 March

Israel and the United States began a series of strikes against Iran on 28 February 2026, and Iran responded in part by saying it would block ships from using the Strait of Hormuz, the UK House of Commons Library reported. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on 7 April that most shipping stopped using the strait after the military action began, a de facto closure. Brent crude, which began the year at US$61 a barrel and rose to US$72 in January and February, passed US$100 on 12 March and ended the first quarter at US$118, the largest quarterly rise after inflation in data going back to 1988, the EIA said. As a result, Canadian energy and resource export values after February 2026 reflect higher prices as well as any change in volumes.

Date

28 February 2026

Kind

Other

Where

International

Evidence

Action: Something was done: a law switched on, a tariff imposed, money committed. How evidence is weighed

Sources

• US Energy Information Administration, “Crude oil and petroleum product prices increased sharply in the first quarter of 2026 (Today in Energy)” (external site), 7 April 2026. source record
• House of Commons Library (UK Parliament), “Israel/US-Iran conflict 2026: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz” (external site), 8 June 2026. source record

Claims that rest on this event

• ContextOutcome

  Canada's export diversification so far is more than half gold, and most of the rest is raw materials. Statistics Canada's headline figure, which includes gold, put the US share of goods exports at 69.8% in August 2026, up from 66.1% in July (balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted). Leaving out gold sent to the UK, our calculation from customs data puts the US share at 79.1% in January-August 2024 and 74.6% in January-August 2026, and it has stayed around 74-75% in most months since April 2025 (monthly range about 72-78%). Of the rise in non-US exports between those two periods, about 52% is gold sent to the UK, and about two-thirds of the rest is raw materials. These are values, not volumes, and they say nothing about Washington's intent.

  The oil price jump from March 2026 raises the value of Canada's raw-material exports whatever happens to volumes, which inflates the raw share of non-US export growth.

• SupportsMethod

  Output is measured as export capacity for now and as actual volumes later. The journal's volume model adds different commodities together at fixed prices, so a price rise never counts as growth; trade values must be split into price and volume before they are used for the outcome.

  Brent rose from US$61 to US$118 a barrel in the first quarter of 2026, so trade values after February mix a price shock with changes in volume; this is why values must be split into price and volume.