EventDocument
Quebec copper wire exports shift away from the US after the 50% copper tariff: 99.3% US-bound in Jan-Jul 2025, 8.6% in Jan-Jul 2026
Copper wire (HS 7408) is inside the Section 232 copper annex, at 50% from 2025-08-01 (Proclamation 10962, 90 FR 37727). CIMT: Quebec copper wire exports went from C$1.56bn in Jan-Jul 2025, 99.3% to the US, to C$0.63bn in Jan-Jul 2026, 8.6% to the US, now sold mainly to Honduras, France and Morocco. Copper cathodes (outside the annex) stayed 99% US-bound (C$2.67bn in 2025). The cleanest one-product case of a tariff pushing a Quebec resource product away from the US.
- Date
- (known to the nearest estimate)
- Kind
- Other
- Where
- Quebec
- Evidence
- Document: An official document: a bill, a filing, an agreement text. How evidence is weighed
- Who
- Glencore (subject)
Sources
- Federal Register (Executive Office of the President), “Proclamation 10962: Adjusting Imports of Copper Into the United States” (external site), . source record
- Statistics Canada, “Canadian International Merchandise Trade (CIMT) database: domestic exports by HS6 product, destination and province of origin, customs basis (data to July 2026)” (external site), . source record
Claims that rest on this event
- Canada's export diversification so far is more than half gold, and most of the rest is raw materials. Statistics Canada's headline figure, which includes gold, put the US share of goods exports at 69.8% in August 2026, up from 66.1% in July (balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted). Leaving out gold sent to the UK, our calculation from customs data puts the US share at 79.1% in January-August 2024 and 74.6% in January-August 2026, and it has stayed around 74-75% in most months since April 2025 (monthly range about 72-78%). Of the rise in non-US exports between those two periods, about 52% is gold sent to the UK, and about two-thirds of the rest is raw materials. These are values, not volumes, and they say nothing about Washington's intent.
Quebec copper wire went from 99% US-bound to under 9% after the 50% copper tariff, and now goes mainly to Honduras, France and Morocco: a small diversification in a processed good.
- US tariffs spare raw resources and hit processed goods. Energy was taxed at 10% or exempt in every round, the potash rate was cut to 10%, and the 2026 Section 338 tariffs exempt energy, potash, critical minerals and fish, while steel, aluminum, copper, autos and lumber took the heaviest tariffs.
Copper wire, a processed product, took the 50% copper tariff while copper cathodes outside it stayed 99% US-bound; Quebec's wire exports left the US market.
How it bears on the outcome
| Explanation | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| O0 No meaningful speed-up | Neutral weak | A shift in destination says nothing about the pace of the build-out. |
| O1 Faster, but the extra output goes mostly elsewhere | Fits moderate | Copper wire went from 99% to 9% US-bound after the 50% tariff, a clear case of output moving to other buyers; cathodes outside the tariff stayed US-bound. |
| O2 Faster, and more volume reaches the US (this level or higher) | Against moderate | A near-total loss of US-bound copper wire volume runs against growing US volume, though cathodes stayed 99% US-bound and the test is in 2034. |
| O3 Locked-in preferential terms for the US | Against weak | A 50% tariff that pushes the product away shows no preferential US terms in force. |