EventStatement
Trump at the UNGA (with Zelenskyy): 'We'll continue to go with Canada, but Belarus would like to sell it for a much lower price'
Said at a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at the UN General Assembly. A day earlier he had said he was working on a deal to buy cheaper potash from Belarus to reduce US dependence on Canada; in December 2025 he said he might impose 'very severe tariffs' on fertilizer from Canada. Belarusian President Lukashenko has said Belarus cannot supply large volumes.
- Date
- Kind
- Statement
- Where
- United States
- Evidence
- Statement: Something was said. Weighted lowest: words cost less than actions. How evidence is weighed
- Who
- Donald Trump (spoke)
When people heard about it
The public does not always learn of an event when it happens: some come out later, and old ones can become news again because of something newer.
- Happened
- First reported
- (same day), in BNN Bloomberg (The Canadian Press)
Evidence for
Latest articles
No article cites this record yet.
Sources
- 980 CJME, “Trump looking at 'very severe tariffs' on fertilizer, affecting Sask. potash industry” (external site), . source record
- BNN Bloomberg (The Canadian Press), “Trump says U.S. to continue buying Canadian potash but wants cheaper price” (external site), . source record
Quotes
“Belarus has a lot of potash, and our farmers need good prices... We'll continue to go with Canada, but Belarus would like to sell it for a much lower price”
From BNN Bloomberg (The Canadian Press): Trump says U.S. to continue buying Canadian potash but wants cheaper price, paragraphs beginning "Belarus has a lot of potash" and "We'll continue to go with Canada" (quoted in coverage, not taken from the original)
Claims that rest on this event
Tested hypotheses: a thought experiment
Suppose Washington foresaw and wanted this. Would this event look any different than under the rival readings? This is a deliberately contrarian test, explained here, not the author’s belief. Judgments, not measurements.
Judged to fit the plain self-interest reading better than the foresight reading. What this means
| Reading | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| I0a Accident Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | An offhand remark at a meeting fits this reading as well as the others. |
| I0b Plain self-interest; Canada's response not considered Tested hypothesis (intent) | Fits weak | Staying with Canadian potash while seeking a lower price fits plain buyer self-interest. |
| I1 Foreseen and welcomed, not the reason Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | Continued purchases fit these readings too; using Belarus as a price lever does not show foresight of Canada's build-out either way. |
| I2 Foreseen and wanted (this level or higher) Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | Continued purchases fit these readings too; using Belarus as a price lever does not show foresight of Canada's build-out either way. |
| I3 Worked-out plan with specific targets Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | No targets or timeline appear. |
| R-annex Annexation Rival reading | Neutral weak | Continuing to buy Canadian potash fits these readings no better or worse than the others. |
| R-frag Fragmentation Rival reading | Neutral weak | Continuing to buy Canadian potash fits these readings no better or worse than the others. |
| R-weaken Weaken-Canada rivals (annexation or fragmentation) Rival reading | Neutral weak | Continuing to buy Canadian potash fits these readings no better or worse than the others. |
Logged against predictions
- P15: "Asymmetry" (foresight test 2) (logged 22 September 2026, logged only)