Event19 February 2026Document

Statistics Canada: the US share of Canada's goods exports fell to 71.7% in 2025, from 75.9% in 2024

Statistics Canada reported on 19 February 2026, in its release of December 2025 trade data, that the proportion of Canada's merchandise exports going to the United States fell from 75.9% in 2024 to 71.7% in 2025, on a balance-of-payments basis. Exports to the US fell 5.8% in 2025, while exports to other countries rose 17.2%. Total exports edged down 0.2%. Statistics Canada said a 41.7% rise in exports of unwrought gold, silver and platinum group metals, amid rising prices, almost entirely offset declines in 7 of 11 product sections. The share of imports coming from the US fell from 62.3% to 58.8%. On a customs basis, Statistics Canada Table 12-10-0011 puts the US share of exports at 76.3% in 2024 and 72.3% in 2025.

Date: 19 February 2026
Kind: Other
Where: Canada
Evidence: Document: An official document: a bill, a filing, an agreement text. How evidence is weighed
Who: Statistics Canada (acted)

Evidence for

Canada's export diversification so far is more than half gold, and most of the rest is raw materials. Statistics Canada's headline figure, which includes gold, …

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Sources

Statistics Canada, “Statistics Canada Table 12-10-0175: Domestic exports and re-exports by NAPCS section and principal trading partner, monthly” (external site). source record
Statistics Canada, “The Daily: Canadian international merchandise trade, December 2025” (external site), 19 February 2026. source record

Claims that rest on this event

SupportsOutcome
Canada's export diversification so far is more than half gold, and most of the rest is raw materials. Statistics Canada's headline figure, which includes gold, put the US share of goods exports at 69.8% in August 2026, up from 66.1% in July (balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted). Leaving out gold sent to the UK, our calculation from customs data puts the US share at 79.1% in January-August 2024 and 74.6% in January-August 2026, and it has stayed around 74-75% in most months since April 2025 (monthly range about 72-78%). Of the rise in non-US exports between those two periods, about 52% is gold sent to the UK, and about two-thirds of the rest is raw materials. These are values, not volumes, and they say nothing about Washington's intent.
Annual US share fell on a BOP basis.

How it bears on the outcome

Explanation	Fit	Why
O0 No meaningful speed-up	Fits weak	Total exports edged down and most of the non-US gain came from precious-metal prices, consistent with no meaningful speed-up yet; values, not capacity.
O1 Faster, but the extra output goes mostly elsewhere	Fits weak	Exports to the US fell 5.8% while other markets rose 17.2%, in this reading's direction, though driven largely by gold prices rather than new output.
O2 Faster, and more volume reaches the US (this level or higher)	Against weak	A 5.8% fall in exports to the US in 2025 is somewhat awkward for growing US volumes; values, not volumes, in a year of tariffs.
O3 Locked-in preferential terms for the US	Against weak	A falling US share and value sit awkwardly with locked-in US preferences.