EventDocument
Study of US seizure data: 97-99% of fentanyl in large US land-border seizures from 2013 to 2024 came from Mexico
CBC reported on July 5, 2025 on a new report by the Manhattan Institute, a US think tank (co-authored by Carnegie Mellon professor Jonathan Caulkins), finding that from 2013 to 2024, 99% of pills and 97% of powder fentanyl captured in large seizures at US land borders came from Mexico. In 2023-24, US counties on the Canadian border accounted for under 2.5% of large seizures. CBC also cited US Customs and Border Protection data: 26 kg of fentanyl seized near the northern border from October 2024 to May 2025, against some 3,700 kg at the southwest border. In our reading, these figures undercut the fentanyl grounds the US gave for its emergency tariffs on Canada.
- Date
- (known to the nearest estimate)
- Kind
- Other
- Where
- United States
- Evidence
- Document: An official document: a bill, a filing, an agreement text. How evidence is weighed
- Who
- Manhattan Institute (acted)
Sources
- CBC, “Fentanyl seizures are up at the U.S. northern border — but Canada is still a very small player” (external site), . source record
Claims that rest on this event
- In the foresight thought experiment: the official US reasons for the tariffs on Canada are lists of grievances with no resource request: fentanyl (the first tariff order), Canadian retaliation (the 35% tariff letter), Canada's auto surtax, alcohol boycotts and dairy quotas (the Section 338 proclamations), and the 2026 US trade-barriers report. The Canada-specific grounds shifted about three times. They show what the US chose to argue, not why it acted.
Fentanyl grounds undercut by seizure figures (as reported by CBC).
Tested hypotheses: a thought experiment
Suppose Washington foresaw and wanted this. Would this event look any different than under the rival readings? This is a deliberately contrarian test, explained here, not the author’s belief. Judgments, not measurements.
Non-discriminating: this event fits the plain self-interest reading and the foresight reading equally. It does not tell them apart. What this means
| Reading | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| I0a Accident Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | Data showing the fentanyl rationale was thin for Canada fit every reading equally: a stated reason that differs from the real one is expected under each of them. |
| I0b Plain self-interest; Canada's response not considered Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | Data showing the fentanyl rationale was thin for Canada fit every reading equally: a stated reason that differs from the real one is expected under each of them. |
| I1 Foreseen and welcomed, not the reason Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | Data showing the fentanyl rationale was thin for Canada fit every reading equally: a stated reason that differs from the real one is expected under each of them. |
| I2 Foreseen and wanted (this level or higher) Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | Data showing the fentanyl rationale was thin for Canada fit every reading equally: a stated reason that differs from the real one is expected under each of them. |
| I3 Worked-out plan with specific targets Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | Data showing the fentanyl rationale was thin for Canada fit every reading equally: a stated reason that differs from the real one is expected under each of them. |
| R-annex Annexation Rival reading | Neutral weak | Data showing the fentanyl rationale was thin for Canada fit every reading equally: a stated reason that differs from the real one is expected under each of them. |
| R-frag Fragmentation Rival reading | Neutral weak | Data showing the fentanyl rationale was thin for Canada fit every reading equally: a stated reason that differs from the real one is expected under each of them. |
| R-weaken Weaken-Canada rivals (annexation or fragmentation) Rival reading | Neutral weak | Data showing the fentanyl rationale was thin for Canada fit every reading equally: a stated reason that differs from the real one is expected under each of them. |