EventAction
US raises the China fentanyl tariff to 20%; China adds 10-15% tariffs on US farm goods from 10 March
The additional US tariff on Chinese goods over fentanyl rose from 10% to 20% on 4 March 2025. China answered with tariffs of 10% and 15% on a range of US farm products, including chicken, wheat, corn, cotton and soybeans, from 10 March.
- Date
- Kind
- Tariff action
- Where
- United States / China
- Evidence
- Action: Something was done: a law switched on, a tariff imposed, money committed. How evidence is weighed
- Who
- United States federal government (acted); Government of China (counterparty)
Latest articles
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Sources
- Council on Foreign Relations, “Here's How Countries Are Retaliating Against Trump's Tariffs” (external site), . source record
- China Briefing, “US-China Tariff Rates - What Are They Now?” (external site), . source record
Tested hypotheses: a thought experiment
Suppose Washington foresaw and wanted this. Would this event look any different than under the rival readings? This is a deliberately contrarian test, explained here, not the author’s belief. Judgments, not measurements.
Non-discriminating: this event fits the plain self-interest reading and the foresight reading equally. It does not tell them apart. What this means
| Reading | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| I0a Accident Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | This tariff step concerns the US-China exchange, not Canada; it fits all readings equally and says nothing about Canada's build-out or about Canada as a target. |
| I0b Plain self-interest; Canada's response not considered Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | This tariff step concerns the US-China exchange, not Canada; it fits all readings equally and says nothing about Canada's build-out or about Canada as a target. |
| I1 Foreseen and welcomed, not the reason Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | This tariff step concerns the US-China exchange, not Canada; it fits all readings equally and says nothing about Canada's build-out or about Canada as a target. |
| I2 Foreseen and wanted (this level or higher) Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | This tariff step concerns the US-China exchange, not Canada; it fits all readings equally and says nothing about Canada's build-out or about Canada as a target. |
| I3 Worked-out plan with specific targets Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | This tariff step concerns the US-China exchange, not Canada; it fits all readings equally and says nothing about Canada's build-out or about Canada as a target. |
| R-annex Annexation Rival reading | Neutral weak | This tariff step concerns the US-China exchange, not Canada; it fits all readings equally and says nothing about Canada's build-out or about Canada as a target. |
| R-frag Fragmentation Rival reading | Neutral weak | This tariff step concerns the US-China exchange, not Canada; it fits all readings equally and says nothing about Canada's build-out or about Canada as a target. |
| R-weaken Weaken-Canada rivals (annexation or fragmentation) Rival reading | Neutral weak | This tariff step concerns the US-China exchange, not Canada; it fits all readings equally and says nothing about Canada's build-out or about Canada as a target. |