Event5 October 2026Action

Quebec general election: the Parti Québécois wins 59 of 127 seats, short of a majority; the CAQ is shut out (preliminary results)

Quebec voters elected a new National Assembly on 5 October 2026. In Élections Québec's preliminary results, with all 20,704 polling stations counted, the Parti Québécois led in 59 of 127 ridings with 28.02% of the vote, followed by the Liberals (40 ridings, 24.22%), the Conservatives (19, 20.67%) and Québec solidaire (9, 12.43%); Premier Christine Fréchette's Coalition avenir Québec won no seat (13.35%), and Fréchette lost her own riding (CBC News). A majority requires 64 seats; CBC News projects that the PQ, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, will form a minority government. Preliminary turnout was 66.89%. Results become official after the recount of votes.

Date

5 October 2026

Kind

Election

Where

Quebec

Evidence

Action: Something was done: a law switched on, a tariff imposed, money committed. How evidence is weighed

Who

Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) (subject); Parti Québécois (PQ) (subject); Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) (subject); Québec solidaire (QS) (subject); Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) (subject)

Sources

• Qc125, “Projection Qc125 pour le Québec, mise à jour du 28 septembre 2026” (external site), 28 September 2026. source record
• CBC News, “Quebec election: Parti Québécois will form minority government, CBC News projects” (external site), 5 October 2026. source record
• Élections Québec, “Résultats des élections générales provinciales 2026 (préliminaires, dépouillement terminé)” (external site), 6 October 2026. source record

Claims that rest on this event

• SupportsMechanism

  Quebec overrode opposition to protect existing industry (Bill 93 for the Stablex waste site, passed under closure; Bill 11 with relief for the Horne smelter) but avoided a fight over new projects: its fast-track Bill 5 lapsed. The only party that pledged in writing to bring back a Bill 5-style law, the outgoing CAQ, won no seats in the 5 October 2026 election, which left the Parti Québécois short of a majority with 59 of 127 seats (preliminary results).

  The CAQ, the only party pledging a Bill 5-style law, won no seats; PQ minority.

Logged against predictions

• P9: Quebec fast-track test, strict and loose, by 2027-10-05 (logged 5 October 2026, logged only)
• P7: Churchill Falls definitive agreements by 2027-03-31 (logged 5 October 2026, logged only)
• P10: Fragmentation watch (logged 6 October 2026, logged only)