EventDocument
Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey, Q2 2026: investment intentions remain at a high level and oil producers raise spending plans
The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey for the second quarter of 2026, published on 6 July 2026 and based on interviews held from 1 to 21 May, found that firms' investment intentions were broadly unchanged and "remain at a high level", while overall sentiment deteriorated amid the war in the Middle East and higher fuel costs. The share of firms planning or budgeting for a recession in the next 12 months rose from 9% to 17%. In consultations held in Calgary in May, oil and gas firms said investment and production plans had been revised up since December because of higher oil prices, but the Bank wrote that oil sands producers "tend to remain cautious about expansions" because their projects have long life cycles; natural gas producers scaled back investment plans because of low gas prices.
- Date
- Kind
- Other
- Where
- Canada
- Evidence
- Document: An official document: a bill, a filing, an agreement text. How evidence is weighed
- Who
- Bank of Canada (acted)
Sources
- Bank of Canada, “Business Outlook Survey—Second Quarter of 2026” (external site), . source record
Claims that rest on this event
- Planned new oil pipeline capacity to the US adds up to about 730,000 barrels a day. Only 150,000 of it (Enbridge Mainline Phase 1, due in 2027) has a final investment decision. Most of the rest is South Bow's Prairie Connector (about 550,000 a day, 465,000 of it under 20-year shipper contracts, decision targeted for mid-2027, service around 2029). Enbridge postponed its Phase 2 (another 250,000 a day) on July 31, 2026, because producers would not commit.
Oil producers told the Bank of Canada they raised capital spending and production plans in 2026; more production could support new pipeline commitments, though oil sands producers remained cautious about expansions.
- The Pathways deal commits Alberta to support oil production growth for the West Coast pipeline but is non-binding, and that already cost private volume: producers cited it when Enbridge Mainline Phase 2 was postponed.
Oil and gas producers raised spending plans on higher oil prices, while oil sands producers remained cautious about expansions.
How it bears on the outcome
| Explanation | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| O0 No meaningful speed-up | Neutral weak | The survey is mixed: high investment intentions and higher oil plans, but cautious oil sands expansion and reduced gas spending. |
| O1 Faster, but the extra output goes mostly elsewhere | Neutral weak | Mixed survey results say nothing about destination. |
| O2 Faster, and more volume reaches the US (this level or higher) | Neutral weak | Mixed survey results say nothing about destination. |
| O3 Locked-in preferential terms for the US | Neutral weak | Nothing here bears on US terms. |