EventAction
Executive Order 14346 widens the list of goods exempt from the 'reciprocal' tariffs for all countries (bullion, more critical minerals, some pharmaceutical inputs), effective September 8, 2025; energy stays exempt
Signed September 5, 2025 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the order updated Annex II, the list of goods exempt from the April 2025 'reciprocal' tariffs, effective September 8. It added gold bullion, several critical minerals and ores (such as graphite, nickel, tin and molybdenum), wood pulp and some pharmaceutical inputs, and removed aluminum hydroxide and some resins and silicones. Crude oil, natural gas and uranium ores, exempt since April, stayed on the list. The order also set out how tariffs would be cut for partners that sign trade and security agreements. Our note: these raw-resource exemptions apply to every country; they are not specific to Canada.
- Date
- Kind
- Tariff action
- Where
- United States
- Evidence
- Action: Something was done: a law switched on, a tariff imposed, money committed. How evidence is weighed
- Who
- United States federal government (acted)
Sources
- Federal Register, “Executive Order 14346 of September 5, 2025: Modifying the Scope of Reciprocal Tariffs and Establishing Procedures for Implementing Trade and Security Agreements (90 FR 43737)” (external site), . archived copy source record
- EY, “US executive order modifies scope of certain tariffs and establishes procedures for implementing trade and security agreements” (external site), . source record
Claims that rest on this event
- In the foresight thought experiment, the readings carry no odds: why Washington acted can't be observed, so no event could settle a number. What the record shows so far: no test has yet told 'wanted' apart from plain self-interest, and the events that do separate the readings lean toward self-interest, 54 to 7, in a blind grading.
Raw resources spared, but for every country.
- In the foresight thought experiment, most hard US actions also fit 'foreseen and wanted' and plain self-interest equally: tariffs that spare raw resources (a pattern applied worldwide), the replacement tariffs after the US Supreme Court struck down the emergency tariffs in February 2026 (under laws that apply to all countries), the Bridger pipeline permit reusing Keystone XL assets (a private project US refiners want), and US takeovers and private-equity stakes.
Energy and many minerals exempt for all countries (energy since April 2025; more minerals added in September 2025).
- In the thought experiment's second foresight test ('Asymmetry'): US actions protect the flow south (raw goods spared, the Bridger pipeline permit, no objection to pipelines toward the US) and threaten Canada's efforts to sell elsewhere. But we have found no protection that costs the US something plain self-interest wouldn't pay, so the pattern fits 'foreseen and wanted' and plain self-interest equally.
Keeps southbound resource flows tariff-free at no cost to the US, but for every country.
- Each item is graded against each reading: does it fit one reading better, or both equally? An item that 'foreseen and wanted' and plain self-interest predict equally is called non-discriminating: it can still matter for the outcome, but says nothing about intent.
Matters for outcome, silent on intent.
Tested hypotheses: a thought experiment
Suppose Washington foresaw and wanted this. Would this event look any different than under the rival readings? This is a deliberately contrarian test, explained here, not the author’s belief. Judgments, not measurements.
Non-discriminating: this event fits the plain self-interest reading and the foresight reading equally. It does not tell them apart. What this means
| Reading | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| I0a Accident Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | These exemptions apply to every country; they fit these readings equally and are not specific to Canada. |
| I0b Plain self-interest; Canada's response not considered Tested hypothesis (intent) | Fits weak | Keeping energy and adding critical minerals to the tariff-exempt list for all countries is consistent with the US wanting cheap resource imports; it applies globally, so it fits equally with I1 and I2. |
| I1 Foreseen and welcomed, not the reason Tested hypothesis (intent) | Fits weak | Exempting resource imports for all countries is consistent with a US interest in resource inflows, but it says nothing about foreseeing Canada's response; fits equally with I0b and I2. |
| I2 Foreseen and wanted (this level or higher) Tested hypothesis (intent) | Fits weak | Exempting resource imports for all countries is consistent with a US interest in resource inflows, but it is global and carries no sign of foresight about Canada's build-out; fits equally with I0b and I1. |
| I3 Worked-out plan with specific targets Tested hypothesis (intent) | Neutral weak | These exemptions apply to every country; they fit these readings equally and are not specific to Canada. |
| R-annex Annexation Rival reading | Neutral weak | These exemptions apply to every country; they fit these readings equally and are not specific to Canada. |
| R-frag Fragmentation Rival reading | Neutral weak | These exemptions apply to every country; they fit these readings equally and are not specific to Canada. |
| R-weaken Weaken-Canada rivals (annexation or fragmentation) Rival reading | Neutral weak | These exemptions apply to every country; they fit these readings equally and are not specific to Canada. |