EventAction
Ontario puts a 25% surcharge on electricity exported to three US states; after Trump threatens 50% steel and aluminum tariffs, both back down
Ontario's 25% surcharge on electricity exported to Michigan, Minnesota and New York took effect on 10 March 2025 as a response to US tariffs, CBC reported. On 11 March President Trump posted that he had instructed his commerce secretary to add a further 25% tariff, to 50%, on Canadian steel and aluminum. Later that day, after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick invited Premier Doug Ford to talks, Ontario suspended the surcharge and the White House said the higher rate would not take effect, CNN reported; the 25% global steel and aluminum tariffs began on 12 March. Ontario said in April that the one-day surcharge raised about $260,000.
- Date
- Kind
- Tariff action
- Where
- Ontario
- Evidence
- Action: Something was done: a law switched on, a tariff imposed, money committed. How evidence is weighed
- Who
- United States federal government (acted); Donald Trump (signed); Government of Ontario (acted); Doug Ford (subject)
Sources
- CBC News, “Ontario slaps 25% levy on U.S.-bound electricity in latest trade war volley” (external site), . source record
- CBC News, “Ontario collected $260K from its 1-day electricity surcharge on U.S. exports” (external site), . source record
- CNN, “Trump reverses new tariffs threat on Canada after Ontario rescinds electricity charges” (external site), . paywalled source record
Claims that rest on this event
- New electricity export lines run south, not overseas. Two lines, to New England and New York, entered service in 2026 under contracts signed before the tariffs (about 20 TWh a year). But they mostly make up for sales Hydro-Québec is losing elsewhere: comparing a normal water year with a normal water year, Canada's energy regulator puts electricity exports at about 59 TWh in 2024 and about 57 TWh in 2034, so in the journal's model power adds about nothing to what reaches the US, like for like. The model doesn't forecast rain and snow. One caveat: 2024 was actually a drought year (Canada exported only about 36 TWh), so if 2034 is a normal year, the check in 2034 will make electricity look about US$2 billion a year better, for reasons that have nothing to do with building. The Churchill Falls deal adds no new line to the US; its power goes mainly to Quebec.
Ontario briefly used electricity exports to the US as leverage: a 25% export surcharge that applied for one day in March 2025.
How it bears on the outcome
| Explanation | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| O0 No meaningful speed-up | Neutral weak | A one-day electricity surcharge and its withdrawal say nothing about whether Canada's resource build-out speeds up or where its output goes. |
| O1 Faster, but the extra output goes mostly elsewhere | Neutral weak | A one-day electricity surcharge and its withdrawal say nothing about whether Canada's resource build-out speeds up or where its output goes. |
| O2 Faster, and more volume reaches the US (this level or higher) | Neutral weak | A one-day electricity surcharge and its withdrawal say nothing about whether Canada's resource build-out speeds up or where its output goes. |
| O3 Locked-in preferential terms for the US | Neutral weak | A one-day electricity surcharge and its withdrawal say nothing about whether Canada's resource build-out speeds up or where its output goes. |