Event2025Document

Hydro-Québec was a net buyer of about 3.4 TWh on outside markets in 2025, a third straight low-runoff year (a net seller of about 5.7 TWh in 2024)

HQ's Form 18-K for 2025: sales outside Quebec (Canada and US together) fell to 11,776 GWh, from 15,092 GWh in 2024 and 36,190 GWh in 2021, earning C$1,703M (about 14.5¢/kWh). Short-term purchases on outside markets rose to 15.2 TWh (C$1,151M) from 9.4 TWh (C$335M) in 2024; HQ resold part of that energy when prices were higher and deliberately cut exports to rebuild reservoirs after low runoff persisting since 2023. Separately, HQ bought 22.2 TWh from Churchill Falls for C$126M (about 0.57¢/kWh with the winter availability contract; 27.1 TWh for C$197M in 2024). The swing is hydrological and cyclical, not a structural import position; NECEC (in service 2026-01-16) and CHPE add about 20 TWh a year of contracted US sales from 2026.

Date

2025 (known to the year)

Kind

Other

Where

Quebec

Evidence

Document: An official document: a bill, a filing, an agreement text. How evidence is weighed

Who

Hydro-Québec (subject)

Sources

• Hydro-Québec, “Hydro-Québec Form 18-K for 2025” (external site), 2026. source record

Projects

• Churchill Falls upgrades / Gull Island

Claims that rest on this event

• SupportsOutcome

  New electricity export lines run south, not overseas. Two lines, to New England and New York, entered service in 2026 under contracts signed before the tariffs (about 20 TWh a year). But they mostly make up for sales Hydro-Québec is losing elsewhere: comparing a normal water year with a normal water year, Canada's energy regulator puts electricity exports at about 59 TWh in 2024 and about 57 TWh in 2034, so in the journal's model power adds about nothing to what reaches the US, like for like. The model doesn't forecast rain and snow. One caveat: 2024 was actually a drought year (Canada exported only about 36 TWh), so if 2034 is a normal year, the check in 2034 will make electricity look about US$2 billion a year better, for reasons that have nothing to do with building. The Churchill Falls deal adds no new line to the US; its power goes mainly to Quebec.

  Hydro-Québec was a net buyer of about 3.4 TWh on outside markets in 2025, a third low-runoff year, and cut exports to rebuild its reservoirs: the new lines south partly make up for sales lost in dry years.