EventDocument
C.D. Howe Institute: of $93.6B in 2025 foreign direct investment, $43.6B was takeovers and $33.6B reinvested earnings
In a data note published on 11 May 2026, the C.D. Howe Institute said foreign direct investment in Canada reached $93.6 billion in 2025, the highest since 2007, but that nearly half ($43.6 billion) came through mergers and acquisitions, which in most cases add no new factories, equipment or jobs. Another $33.6 billion was earnings retained by foreign-owned firms, and the institute said the data do not show whether those funds finance new capacity. It described headline FDI flows as "a sideshow" to the productivity-enhancing capital investment Canada needs. Its figure is drawn from Statistics Canada table 36-10-0025-01, a directional (net) presentation, while Statistics Canada's $96.8 billion headline of 26 February 2026 uses the gross asset-liability presentation.
- Date
- Kind
- Other
- Where
- Canada
- Evidence
- Document: An official document: a bill, a filing, an agreement text. How evidence is weighed
Sources
- C.D. Howe Institute, “Foreign Direct Investment in Canada Hits a $93B High, but Much is Not New Investment” (external site), . source record
Claims that rest on this event
- Official forecasts show no boom (about 1.1% growth in 2026, from Finance Canada and the Parliamentary Budget Officer), and much of the record foreign direct investment in 2025 was takeovers and reinvested earnings rather than new investment.
The C.D. Howe Institute found that most 2025 foreign direct investment was takeovers ($43.6 billion) and reinvested earnings ($33.6 billion) rather than clearly new investment.
How it bears on the outcome
| Explanation | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| O0 No meaningful speed-up | Fits weak | The finding that most 2025 FDI was takeovers and retained earnings, not new capacity, is consistent with no meaningful speed-up; it is an analysis of aggregate flows. |
| O1 Faster, but the extra output goes mostly elsewhere | Neutral weak | The note does not address where resource output goes. |
| O2 Faster, and more volume reaches the US (this level or higher) | Neutral weak | The note does not address volumes reaching the US. |
| O3 Locked-in preferential terms for the US | Neutral weak | The note does not address US preferential terms. |