Event22 July 2026Document

StatCan: Canadian-resident return trips from the US fell 25.4% in 2025, and spending on US visits fell C$3.3B to C$18.8B

Statistics Canada reported on 22 July 2026, in a year-in-review article, that total Canadian-resident return border crossings from the United States (all modes) fell 25.4% in 2025 from 2024, bottoming out in July 2025 at nearly one-third below a year earlier, and that spending on visits to the United States fell by $3.3 billion to $18.8 billion in 2025. In August 2026, Canadian-resident return trips from the United States by automobile were up 9.9% from August 2025 but still 27.4% below August 2024, and trips by air were 22.7% below August 2024 (The Daily, 11 September 2026).

Date

22 July 2026

Kind

Other

Where

Canada

Evidence

Document: An official document: a bill, a filing, an agreement text. How evidence is weighed

Sources

• Statistics Canada, “Canadian-resident travel to the United States: A year in review (Economic and Social Reports 36-28-0001)” (external site), 22 July 2026. source record
• Statistics Canada, “The Daily: Leading indicator of international arrivals to Canada, August 2026” (external site), 11 September 2026. source record

Claims that rest on this event

• SupportsMechanism

  Canadians' rally against the US shows in behaviour, not just polls: return trips from the US fell 25.4% in 2025 (all modes; car trips were still 27% below 2024 in August 2026), spending on US visits fell by C$3.3 billion, boycotts spread, and two premiers called snap elections citing the US threat. This shows the effect, not what caused it.

  Source of the travel figures: return trips from the US (all modes) -25.4% in 2025; US travel spending -C$3.3B; car trips still -27.4% vs 2024 in Aug 2026.

• SupportsOutcome

  Counted as Americans' income, Canada's build-out adds about US$1.5 billion a year by 2034, mostly US owners' profits from Canadian oil, gas and LNG, but the trade war costs more. The US comes out ahead in 2034 only if about a tenth or less of today's tariff damage is still in place (Canada: unless about 57% is), which happens in about 14% of our runs if the tariffs fade the way past US tariffs did. Either way the amount is small for the US, about 0.006% of its economy in 2034. This counts income; the forecast that more Canadian supply reaches the US counts volume.

  Canadians' return trips from the US fell 25% in 2025: lost travel spending is another cost of the trade war to Americans.