OttawaC2

Ottawa in no hurry

In no hurry: Ottawa didn't ask for the crisis and isn't rushing to end it. It walked away from the tentative deal announced on 18 August 2026, three days later, citing late US demands. Before July 2026 it took a "go slow" approach to the trade talks. It has also kept a tight limit on the workforce a fast build-out would need: Canada's population grew 0.5% in the year to 1 July 2026, the lowest rate since 1915-16 (Statistics Canada, 23 September 2026). The cuts began under the Trudeau government's 2025-2027 immigration plan. Carney's 2026-2028 plan (November 2025) eased them slightly on permanent residents (380,000 a year, against the 365,000 first planned for 2027) and pushed back by a year the goal of bringing temporary residents below 5% of the population, but cut new temporary arrivals further (from 673,650 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026). Our judgment: growth this slow can't carry the economy on its own, so holding it there is a bet that investment and productivity will supply the growth instead, which is a patient strategy, not a rushed one.

Other readings on this scale: C0 · C1 · C3. All of them on the odds page.