ClaimOutcome
What the build-out costs the US is leverage, not supply. US leverage rested on Canada having few other buyers: in 2025 about 90% of Canadian crude exports by volume went to the US, the coast took 12.5% of oil export pipeline capacity, and LNG exports had barely started. The loss comes late: new US-bound oil capacity arrives first (2027-29), while most of the capacity to sell elsewhere comes around 2034.
The evidence it rests on
Supports (4)
- Canada Energy Regulator: Trans Mountain carried an average of 761,000 barrels a day in 2025, up 37% from 2024
Captivity already eroding via the 2024 Trans Mountain expansion.
Documented by: Canada Energy Regulator, “Market Snapshot: Oil pipeline throughputs remained high in 2025” (external site), .
- LNG Canada ships its first cargo from Kitimat, BC, bound for Asia
LNG exports to Asia began, ending Canada's complete reliance on the United States as its only gas export market.
Documented by: LNG Canada, “First Cargo Puts Canada on the Map of LNG Exporting Nations” (external site), . and 3 more
- Enbridge takes its final investment decision on Mainline Optimization Phase 1 (+150,000 b/d) and a Flanagan South expansion (+100,000 b/d), US$1.4B
Southbound additions arrive first.
Documented by: Enbridge, “Enbridge Adding Canadian Egress to Key U.S. Refining Markets, Enhancing North American Energy Security” (external site), . and 2 more
- CER overview of 2025 Canada–US energy trade: export shares by product
The energy regulator's 2025 overview: about 90% of crude exports, nearly all pipeline gas and all electricity went to the US, while LNG, barely started, went to East Asia. In 2025 Canada still had few other buyers.
Documented by: Canada Energy Regulator, “Market Snapshot: Overview of 2025 Canada-U.S. Energy Trade” (external site), .
Complicates (1)
- Ottawa moves to list the Alberta-backed West Coast oil pipeline as a national-interest project; Alberta is the proponent and Pembina holds 10%
The main future rerouting leg may not be built.
Documented by: BNN Bloomberg (The Canadian Press), “Ottawa moves to list Alberta-backed West Coast pipeline as national interest project” (external site), .
Context (1)
- Energy Secretary Wright, asked on CNBC whether Canada could ship its oil west to sell overseas, says new pipeline capacity is hard to build and the existing West Coast route is small
A US insider judged rerouting hard and small.
Documented by: CNBC, “CNBC transcript: Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Squawk on the Street” (external site), .
Claims are weighed by the evidence under them, actions first. Method.